A very different behavior occurs when the task is to generate exact values for a business case, especially one where the estimator has a stake in the outcome, as opposed to a calibrated estimator providing an initial 90% confidence interval (CI). Sitting in a room, one or more people working on the business case will play a game with each estimate. Forced to choose exact values, no matter how uncertain or arbitrary, the estimators ask: “How much should this value be to be agreeable to others and still be sufficient to prove my (predetermined) point?” It is almost as if the terms “consensus”
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