Sometimes the entire trajectory of history can turn on nearly random events, like the poorly designed “butterfly ballot” in Palm Beach County, Florida, that caused some Floridians to mistakenly vote for Pat Buchanan and probably cost Al Gore the 2000 presidential election. Play out thousands of poker hands, watch hundreds of sporting events when you have money on the line, or invest in dozens of startups, and you’ll quickly learn that between the vagaries of fate and our uncertain state of knowledge about the world, getting things even somewhat right is hard enough. Probabilities are usually
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