Probabilistic thinking works best over repeated trials. If I get all-in with a pair of aces in poker and my opponent makes her flush draw, I’ll feel good about that because I’m going to play thousands more poker hands and I’ll make money from her in the long run. Potentially world-altering technologies are in a funny category, though. If you bundle them into a portfolio of long-shot bets, as VC firms do, then you can take a probabilistic outlook—and if you’re a top VC firm, you’ll be all but guaranteed to make a profit over the long run.
