On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

by Nate Silver

“If you’ve ever spent any time in D.C., it’s like a city of rule followers,” said David Shor, a data scientist and political consultant who works for Democratic campaigns. Shor has a theory for why this is the case. Election campaigns are like the minor league systems for Washington’s social hierarchy: bright kids in their twenties aspire to move up the ranks and get a White House job in their thirties before cashing out with a cushy life in lobbying, consulting, or media. But campaigns are not always very meritocratic. “It’s very rare to actually be able to assess whether someone did a good job,” Shor said. Campaigns have hundreds of staffers and ultimately only one real test—election night—of how well they did, which is often determined by circumstances outside the campaign’s control. Relationships matter more than merit. So people get ahead by going with the program.