The data of our own experience are often biased and incomplete, and we cannot always be counted on to evaluate them fairly. Consequently, those who study human judgment and decision-making urge us to give less weight to our own impressions and to assign more weight to the “base rate,” or general background statistics. For instance, in contemplating the odds that our own marriages might end in divorce, we should attach less significance to our present passion and current conviction that we have found the right person, and we should pay more attention to the overall divorce rate of approximately
...more
