Ian Pitchford

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iv. Base-rate departures. Perhaps the most common determinant of whether an event is one-sided is the base-rate frequency of the different possible outcomes. When certain outcomes occur frequently enough, they become part of our experiential background and go unnoticed. Departures from normality, in contrast, can generate surprise and draw attention. The unexpected can sometimes be unusually memorable.
How We Know What Isn't So (A Psychological Study on Logic)
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