How We Know What Isn't So (A Psychological Study on Logic)

by Thomas Gilovich

An analysis of their comments indicated that they spent more time discussing their losses than their wins. Furthermore, the kind of comments made about wins and losses were quite different. The bettors tended to make “undoing” comments about their losses—comments to the effect that the outcome would have been different if not for some anomalous or “fluke” element (“… it was just luck. Their quarterback got hurt during the game and that probably led to their defeat.”). In contrast, they tended to make “bolstering” comments about their wins—comments indicating that the outcome either should have been as it was, or should have been even more extreme in the same direction (“I don’t think you can put the blame on losing the quarterback. He is an exceptional quarterback, but so is their backup”). By carefully scrutinizing and explaining away their losses, while accepting their successes at face value, gamblers do indeed rewrite their personal histories of success and failure. Losses are often counted, not as losses, but as “near wins.”