The most likely reason for the excessive influence of confirmatory information is that it is easier to deal with cognitively. Consider someone trying to determine whether cloud seeding produces rain. An instance in which cloud seeding is followed by rain is clearly relevant to the issue in question—it registers as an unambiguous success for cloud seeding. In contrast, an instance in which it rains in the absence of cloud seeding is only indirectly relevant—it is neither a success nor a failure. Rather, it represents a consequence of not seeding that serves only as part of a baseline against
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