The thing to avoid is a “bet-the-company” strategy that wins in only one scenario and loses in all the others. One approach is to develop a “robust” strategy that is viable in the variety of futures. Sometimes it is discovered by “regret analysis.” You ask, “What if we get it wrong? What would we regret not having done? What would we regret locking in?” You’re seeking to balance your risks intelligently. Another approach is devising an “adaptive” strategy that is exceptionally alert to changing events and can adjust quickly.
