The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

by Nate Silver

Within a couple of years, the number of Americans willing to take flu shots dwindled to only about one million,29 potentially putting the nation in grave danger had a severe strain hit in 1978 or 1979.30 Ford’s handling of H1N1 was irresponsible on a number of levels. By invoking the likelihood of a 1918-type pandemic, he had gone against the advice of medical experts, who believed at the time that the chance of such a worst-case outcome was no higher than 35 percent and perhaps as low as 2 percent.31 Still, it was not clear what had caused H1N1 to disappear just as suddenly as it emerged. And predictions about H1N1 would fare little better when it came back some thirty-three years later. Scientists at first missed H1N1 when it reappeared in 2009. Then they substantially overestimated the threat it might pose once they detected it.