Kenneth Bernoska

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You can get invited back on television with a far worse track record than Barone’s or Will’s—provided you speak with some conviction and have a viewpoint that matches the producer’s goals. An alternative interpretation is slightly less cynical but potentially harder to swallow: human judgment is intrinsically fallible. It’s hard for any of us (myself included) to recognize how much our relatively narrow range of experience can color our interpretation of the evidence. There’s so much information out there today that none of us can plausibly consume all of it. We’re constantly making decisions ...more
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
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