Kenneth Bernoska

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As Arthur Conan Doyle once said, “Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.” This is sound logic, but we have a lot of trouble distinguishing the impossible from the highly improbable and sometimes get in trouble when we try to make too fine a distinction.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
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