Kenneth Bernoska

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Although Horner and Martinez may be exceptional cases, it is quite rare for players to follow the smooth patterns of development that the aging curve implies; instead, a sort of punctuated equilibrium of jagged peaks and valleys is the norm. Real aging curves are noisy—very noisy (figure 3-2). On average, they form a smooth-looking pattern. But the average, like the family with 1.7 children, is just a statistical abstraction.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
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