The Fukushima nuclear reactor was built to withstand a magnitude 8.6 earthquake,61 but not a 9.1. Archaeological evidence62 is suggestive of historic tsunamis on the scale of the 130-foot waves that the 2011 earthquake produced, but these cases were apparently forgotten or ignored. A magnitude 9.1 earthquake is an incredibly rare event in any part of the world: nobody should have been predicting it to the exact decade, let alone the exact date. In Japan, however, some scientists and central planners dismissed the possibility out of hand. This may reflect a case of overfitting.
