Kenneth Bernoska

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However, when a field is highly competitive, it is only through this painstaking effort around the margin that you can make any money. There is a “water level” established by the competition and your profit will be like the tip of an iceberg: a small sliver of competitive advantage floating just above the surface, but concealing a vast bulwark of effort that went in to support it.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
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