Some of the examples of failed predictions in this book concern people with exceptional intelligence and exemplary statistical training—but whose biases still got in the way. These problems are not so simple and so this book does not promote simple answers to them. It makes some recommendations but they are philosophical as much as technical. Once we’re getting the big stuff right—coming to a better understanding of probability and uncertainty; learning to recognize our biases; appreciating the value of diversity, incentives, and experimentation—we’ll have the luxury of worrying about the
...more
