The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

by Nate Silver

The organization still very much believes in rigorous analysis. The rigor and discipline is applied, however, in the way the organization processes the information it collects, and not in declaring certain types of information off-limits. “The proportion of objective versus subjective analysis is weighted more in some organizations than in others,” he explained. “From our standpoint in Oakland, we’re sort of forced into making objective decisions versus gut-feel decisions. If we in Oakland happen to be right on a gut-feel decision one time, my guess is it would be random. And we’re not in a position to be making random decisions and hope we get lucky. If we’re playing blackjack, and the dealer’s showing a four and we have a six, hitting on the sixteen just doesn’t make sense for us.” The key to making a good forecast, as we observed in chapter 2, is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. Rather, it’s having a good process for weighing the information appropriately. This is the essence of Beane’s philosophy: collect as much information as possible, but then be as rigorous and disciplined as possible when analyzing it.