You will need to learn how to express—and quantify—the uncertainty in your predictions. You will need to update your forecast as facts and circumstances change. You will need to recognize that there is wisdom in seeing the world from a different viewpoint. The more you are willing to do these things, the more capable you will be of evaluating a wide variety of information without abusing it. In short, you will need to learn how to think like a fox. The foxy forecaster recognizes the limitations that human judgment imposes in predicting the world’s course. Knowing those limits can help her to
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