When the National Weather Service says there is a 90 percent chance of clear skies, but it rains instead and spoils your golf outing, you can’t really blame them. Decades of historical data show that when the Weather Service says there is a 1 in 10 chance of rain, it really does rain about 10 percent of the time over the long run.*
But the times when inaccuracy ruins your plans always stick out the most. Frustrating outcomes remain the most salient and build on each other over time.
