When we make a forecast, we have a choice from among many different methods. Some of these might rely solely on quantitative variables like polls, while approaches like Wasserman’s may consider qualitative factors as well. All of them, however, introduce decisions and assumptions that have to be made by the forecaster. Wherever there is human judgment there is the potential for bias. The way to become more objective is to recognize the influence that our assumptions play in our forecasts and to question ourselves about them. In politics, between our ideological predispositions and our
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