Kenneth Bernoska

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The problem is that the model requires a lot of assumptions to work properly, some of which are not very realistic in practice. In particular, the model assumes that everybody in a given population behaves the same way—that they are equally susceptible to a disease, equally likely to be vaccinated for it, and that they intermingle with one another at random. There are no dividing lines by race, gender, age, religion, sexual orientation, or creed; everybody behaves in more or less the same way.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
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