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But when it seems like all of your friends are saying the same thing—that’s when you need to be on high alert. It doesn’t mean those views are necessarily wrong. Hopefully, you’ll have selected your news sources well (and your friends well).* But if a news story stimulates an instinctual, System 1 reaction, as can be especially likely when it’s shared on social media, slow down and make sure it checks out with System 2. Update your priors.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
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