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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't, by Nate Silver

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If you borrow $20 to wager on the Redskins to beat the Cowboys, that is a leveraged bet.* Likewise, it’s leverage when you borrow money to take out a mortgage—or when you borrow money to bet on a mortgage-backed security.
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
by Nate Silver
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