Joe Soltzberg

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forecasters rarely predict exactly a 50 percent chance of rain, which might seem wishy-washy and indecisive to consumers.41 Instead, they’ll flip a coin and round up to 60, or down to 40, even though this makes the forecasts both less accurate and less honest.
Joe Soltzberg
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
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