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Philip Smith
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't, by Nate Silver

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It was hard to tell the signal from the noise. The story the data tells us is often the one we’d like to hear, and we usually make sure that it has a happy ending.
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
by Nate Silver
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