Rodrigo Domínguez

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Some of the type of thinking I encourage in this book can probably be helpful in the realm of national security analysis.87 For instance, the Bayesian approach toward thinking about probability is more compatible with decision making under high uncertainty. It encourages us to hold a large number of hypotheses in our head at once, to think about them probabilistically, and to update them frequently when we come across new information that might be more or less consistent with them.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
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