Not the End of the World: How We Can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet

by Hannah Ritchie

This curve has four stages, which are defined by only two variables: how much forest a country has, and how this is changing from year to year. In Stage 1 – the Pre-Transition phase – a country has lots of forest and is not losing much of it over time. Deforestation might not be zero but is at a very low level. In Stage 2 – the Early Transition phase – countries start to lose forests very rapidly. Forest cover falls quickly, and the annual loss of forest is high. In Stage 3 – the Late Transition phase – deforestation starts to slow down again. At this stage, countries are still losing forest but at a lower rate than before. At the end of this stage, countries are approaching the ‘transition point’. In Stage 4 – the Post-Transition phase – countries pass through the transition from losing forest to gaining it. Forests start to regrow naturally, or countries may replant them. At the start of this phase, a country might not have much forest left, but it is making a comeback. Hopefully, by the end of Stage 4, a country will have not only regrown some of its forest, but will be closing in on historical levels of cover. This might even be a whole stage of its own: Stage 5.