Great by Choice: Uncertainty, Chaos, and Luck—Why Some Thrive Despite Them All
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Entrenched myth: Successful leaders in a turbulent world are bold, risk-seeking visionaries. Contrary finding: The best leaders we studied did not have a visionary ability to predict the future. They observed what worked, figured out why it worked, and built upon proven foundations. They were not more risk taking, more bold, more visionary, and more creative than the comparisons. They were more disciplined, more empirical, and more paranoid.
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Innovation by itself turns out not to be the trump card we expected; more important is the ability to scale innovation, to blend creativity with discipline.
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10X leaders figure out when to go fast, and when not to.
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Entrenched myth: Radical change on the outside requires radical change on the inside. Contrary finding: The 10X cases changed less in reaction to their changing world than the comparison cases.
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The critical question is not whether you’ll have luck, but what you do with the luck that you get.
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Thriving in a chaotic world is not just a business challenge. In fact, all our work is not fundamentally about business, but about the principles that distinguish great organizations from good ones.
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each has its own definition of results, defined by its core purpose—
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Greatness is not just a business quest; it’s a human quest.
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Defeat is certain for him who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time; this is called bad luck.”
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it turns out that the 10X business leaders in our research behaved very much like Amundsen and the comparison leaders behaved much more like Scott.
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It was all part of Amundsen’s years of building a foundation for his quest, training his body and learning as much as possible from practical experience about what actually worked. Amundsen even made a pilgrimage to apprentice with Eskimos. What better way to learn what worked in polar conditions than to spend time with a people who have hundreds of years of accumulated experience in ice and cold and snow and wind?
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Amundsen even made a pilgrimage to apprentice with Eskimos. What better way to learn what worked in polar conditions than to spend time with a people who have hundreds of years of accumulated experience in ice and cold and snow and wind?
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He systematically practiced Eskimo methods and trained himself for every conceivable situation he might encounter en route to the Pole.
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You prepare with intensity, all the time, so that when conditions turn against you, you can draw from a deep reservoir of strength. And equally, you prepare so that when conditions turn in your favor, you can strike hard.
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Yet he designed the entire journey to systematically reduce the role of big forces and chance events by vigorously embracing the possibility of those very same big forces and chance events. He presumed bad events might strike his team somewhere along the journey and he prepared for them, even developing contingency plans so that the team could go on should something unfortunate happen to him along the way.
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He presumed bad events might strike his team somewhere along the journey and he prepared for them, even developing contingency plans so that the team could go on should something unfortunate happen to him along the way.
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DIFFERENT BEHAVIORS, NOT DIFFERENT CIRCUMSTANCES
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They had divergent outcomes principally because they displayed very different behaviors.
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They displayed all these traits, but so did their less successful comparisons.
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First, 10Xers embrace a paradox of control and non-control.
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10Xers understand that they face continuo...
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they accept full responsibility for their own fate.
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10Xers then bring this idea to life by a triad of core behaviors: fanatic discipline, empirical creativity, and productive paranoia.
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Discipline, in essence, is consistency of action—consistency with values, consistency with long-term goals, consistency with performance standards, consistency of method, consistency over time.
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True discipline requires the independence of mind to reject pressures to conform in ways incompatible with values, performance standards, and long-term aspirations.
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They don’t overreact to events, succumb to the herd, or leap for alluring—but irrelevant—opportunities.
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The 10Xers, we concluded, weren’t just disciplined; they were fanatics. Lewis’s decision to issue monthly financial reports is akin to Amundsen’s riding his bicycle from Norway to Spain and eating raw dolphin meat; their behavior fits nowhere on a normal curve.
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were nonconformists in the best sense. They started with values, purpose, long-term goals, and severe performance standards; and they had the fanatic discipline to adhere to them.
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But with significant
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uncertainty multiplied by significant consequences,
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10Xers, in contrast, do not look to conventional wisdom to set their course during times of uncertainty, nor do they primarily look to what other people do, or to what pundits and experts say they should do. They look primarily to empirical evidence.
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The point is to be more empirical to buttress your mental independence and validate your creative instincts. By “empirical,” we mean relying upon direct observation, conducting practical experiments, and/or engaging directly with evidence rather than relying upon opinion, whim, conventional wisdom, authority, or untested ideas. Having an empirical foundation enables 10Xers to make bold, creative moves and bound their risk.
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By “empirical,” we mean relying upon direct observation, conducting practical experiments, and/or engaging directly with evidence rather than relying upon opinion, whim, conventional wisdom, authority, or untested ideas.
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enables 10Xers to make bold, creative moves and b...
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Other expedition leaders believed the Bay of Whales to be unstable ice and thereby a foolhardy place to base operations. Amundsen gathered the source notes and journals from previous expeditions, dating back to Ross’s voyage in 1841. He pored over the details, immersing himself in the evidence, noting consistencies and discrepancies, and assessing all the options.
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something missed by others who simply accepted the conventional distrust of the Bay of Whales: a dome-like feature that’d remained in the same place for seven decades.
Matthew Ackerman
When people provide answers, ask why they think that or where they got the information. If it wasn’t from experience (and you want details, especially mistakes made) and it wasn’t from a primary Or secondary source (that you can the right refer to), the be skeptical. Do your own research.
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the 10Xers had a much deeper empirical foundation for their decisions and actions, which gave them well-founded confidence and bounded their risk.
Matthew Ackerman
In other words, they had an insight, something few or nobody else knew. Unique knowledge based on empirical data that they'd corrected and analyzed to make a contrarian decision or risky decision.
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The 10Xers don’t favor analysis over action; they favor empiricism as the foundation for decisive action.
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maintain hypervigilance in good times as well as bad.
Matthew Ackerman
Importance of positive post mortem (analyzing success) as one tactic and being skeptical and open minded as an attitude
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10Xers constantly consider the possibility that events could turn against them at any moment.
Matthew Ackerman
Rehearse for the worst, invest in the best
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they’d better be prepared.
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By embracing the myriad of possible dangers, they put themselves in a superior position to overcome danger.
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10Xers distinguish themselves not by paranoia per se, but by how they take effective action as a result.
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Productive paranoia isn’t just about avoiding danger,
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10Xers seek to accomplish a great objective, be it a goal, a company, a noble ambition to change the world, or a desire to be useful in the extreme.
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So, why did people follow them? Because of a deeply attractive form of ambition: 10Xers channel their ego and intensity into something larger and more enduring than themselves.
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They’re ambitious, to be sure, but for a purpose beyond themselves, be it building a great company, changing the world, or achieving some great object that’s ultimately not about them.
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The 10Xers share Level 5 leaders’ most important trait: they’re incredibly ambitious, but their ambition is first and foremost for the cause, for the company, for the work, not themselves.
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The central question is, “What are you in it for?” 10X leaders can be bland or colorful, uncharismatic or magnetic, understated or flamboyant, normal to the point of dull, or just flat-out weird—none of this really matters, as long as they’re passionately driven for a cause beyond themselves.
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defined themselves by impact and contribution and purpose.
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