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by
Reid Hoffman
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October 10 - October 21, 2022
There’s one disposition and mind-set that must be “on” like electricity to power all the other opportunity-seeking behaviors: curiosity.
while others simply complain, entrepreneurs ask Why? Why the heck doesn’t this annoying product/service work as well as it should? Is there a better way? And can I make money off it?
“The Three Princes of Serendip.”
In a letter to a friend, Walpole says “serendipitous” is how he refers to the accidental good fortune of the Serendip princes: they got lucky, to be sure, but they also acted sagely and wisely in turning unexpected setbacks into opportunities.
Small, informal networks are still uniquely efficient at circulating ideas. It’s why we still have local PTAs and alumni groups from schools. Book groups. Beekeeping clubs. Conferences and industry meetings.
Many people think you get career stability by minimizing all risk. But ironically, in a changing world, that’s one of the riskiest things you can do.
Nothing is universally risky or not risky; it’s a matter of degree and it varies tremendously based on situation and personality.
Overall, it’s probably not as risky as you think. Most people overrate risk. At our core we humans are wired to avoid risk. We evolved this way because to our ancestors, it was more costly to miss the sign of a predator (threat) than to miss the sign of food (opportunity).
Neuropsychologist Rick Hanson puts it this way: “To keep our ancestors alive, Mother Nature evolved a brain that routinely tricked them into making three mistakes: overestimating threats, underestimating opportunities, and underestimating resources (for dealing with threats and fulfilling opportunities).”
Instead, most simply tried to get a handle on a single yes-or-no question: Could they tolerate the outcome if the worst-case scenario happened?
You’ll never be fully certain. Don’t conflate uncertainty with risk. There will always be uncertainty about career opportunities and risks. Uncertainty is an ingredient of risk.
Consider age and stage. What will the risks be to you in a few years? Age and career stage affect your level of risk. Generally, the downside consequence of failure is lower the younger you are.
Jobs that pay less in cash but offer tremendous learning.
Part-time or contract gigs that are less “stable” than full-time jobs.
Hiring someone without much experience but who’s a fast learner and much cheaper.
When you start a company in a recession there’s less competition for top-notch talent, customer dollars, press coverage, and more.
Fragility is the price we pay for a hyperlinked world where all the slack is optimized out of the system.
Without frequent, contained risk taking, you are setting yourself up for a major dislocation at some point in the future.
Your network is an indispensable source of intelligence because people offer private observations and impressions that would never appear in a public place like the Wall Street Journal or even your company newsletter.
Second, people offer personalized, contextualized advice. Friends and acquaintances know your interests and can tailor their information and advice accordingly.
Third, people can filter information you get from other sources. People can tell you which books to read; which parts of the article are important; which search results to ignore; which people to trust or not trust.
People help focus your attention on the intelligence that’s actionable and relevant. In an age of information overload, this is an incredibly valuable benefit.
Finally, many people simply think better thoughts when in di...
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Two (or more) well-coordinated brains beat one every time.
For centuries, literacy meant the ability to read and write. Those who could read books—and write them—held the power in a society.
Power shifted to those who, in addition to being reading-writing literate, could also wade through billions of bits and find the best information online.
The bigger advantage is gained by network literacy: knowing how to conceptualize, access, and benefit from the information flowing through your social network.
“What three things did you not get to do at the company and wish you did?” You may well get a more useful answer about someone’s experiences with the negative frame—there’s something about reflecting on regret that leads to honest, useful insights.
“What’s the most interesting thing you’ve learned over the past few months?”
Post an article, email a quote, forward along a job offer, and in other ways share small gifts to your network.
A lot of smart people are prone to over-analysis and tend to become paralyzed by indecision at this sort of juncture point.
For now, we’ll just say that when it comes to intelligence, good synthesis is what makes the whole worth more than the sum of the parts.
Constant change and uncertainty make any traditional career strategy ineffective. The career escalator is permanently jammed. The employer-employee pact is dissolving. Competition for opportunity is fierce.
How Many Friends Does One Person Need?
