Think a Brexit vote would push Scotland out of the UK? Think again | Martin Kettle

Even if Britain leaves the European Union, there are many hurdles facing any renewed bid for Scottish independence – as the SNP well knows

So, Scotland will quit the United Kingdom if the vote in June goes against remaining in the European Union, will it? If you are a fervent Scottish nationalist you may be hoping so. If you are a worried pro-EU unionist you may be fearing so. And even if you are neither of these, you may have got the general impression that it is likely. But I say this: don’t jump to conclusions.

Interviewed by Andrew Marr on Sunday, the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon came close to promising a second independence vote if Britain votes to leave. The shift in Scottish opinion would be “inescapable” and there would “almost certainly” be a second vote, she said. The next day the party’s Westminster leader, Angus Robertson, said Scots “will demand” a referendum if they are “forced out” of the EU.

Related: EU referendum: Cameron claims leaving EU could make cutting immigration harder - Politics live

Sturgeon will only call a second referendum when she thinks she can win it, or when she is forced by party to do so

Related: Euroscepticism in Scotland soars to record high

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