The 2016 U.S. Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet

Iowa has a reputation for confounding expectations, and 2016 has been no exception. On the Republican side, Donald Trump’s seemingly unstoppable momentum hit the wall of Ted Cruz and shuddered to a halt, dropping down to second. Marco Rubio proved skeptics wrong—or at least overzealous—in doubting that he was building momentum. The Florida senator delivered a strong third-place finish (he practically pretended it was first anyway), and nearly caught Trump. On the Democratic side, after months of trading leads, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders finally ended in an effective tie. (The Iowa Democratic Party said Clinton had finished with the thinnest of leads.)

Now the campaign heads to New Hampshire ahead of the February 9 primary there. There are four big questions to watch now.

First, is our long national Trump nightmare over? The Iowa caucuses had been presented by many journalists—and not least by Trump—as a chance for him to prove that he wasn’t just a master of publicity but also had the organizational oomph to turn out voters. If so, he failed the test. Turnout was high on Monday, but that wasn’t enough for Trump, who still slumped into second, with Rubio hot on his heels. The problem for Trump is clear enough: He will have to play catch-up to learn turnout skills, even as he has to explain why his failure to win in Iowa doesn’t disqualify a guy who’s candidacy is based on winning. But we’ve heard that Trump was finished before, and he has a huge lead in New Hampshire at the moment. It might be a tiny bit premature to breathe a sigh of relief.

Second, can Republicans stop Cruz? The Trump stumble is a pyrrhic victory for GOP leaders. They were petrified of Trump winning but fear and loathe Cruz, too. They both dislike him personally and think he’d be a bad general-election candidate. Cruz heads to New Hampshire in second place with momentum and a large war chest. Inextricable from this question is whether Rubio can finally muster the forces of the establishment behind him. Monday was a good start, but Rubio’s campaign has promised to finish second in the Granite State, and probably needs to do so to clear the field of other Cruz alternatives.

Third, what kind of momentum will Bernie Sanders get? Given that he was leading a few weeks ago, Sanders’s tie feels almost like a defeat. It shouldn’t. A year ago, Sanders seemed like a novelty candidate and Hillary Clinton seemed like a lock. Sanders fought her machine to a draw in the Hawkeye State and now goes to New Hampshire, where his lead already looked insurmountable even before the Iowa results. Sanders’s real challenge is down the road in Nevada, South Carolina, and the Super Tuesday states. (It’s important to remember that the candidates are fighting for delegates, too—CNN projects Clinton taking a slight lead among Iowa’s 44 delegates.)

Fourth, will anyone else drop out? On Monday night, two long-shot candidates left the race. Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucus big in 2008, struggled to be heard among the many younger Republicans, and he dropped out after pulling less than 2 percent of caucuses. On the Democratic side, Martin O’Malley suspended his campaign as well, after registering less than 1 percent against Clinton and Sanders.

As for the rest of the field, the less said is probably the better. Only Ben Carson, Rand Paul, and Jeb Bush managed to crack 2 percent, and only Carson made it to double digits. New Hampshire is very different political terrain than Iowa, but those numbers are a good sign that the other campaigns may not be long for this world.

Yet with so many candidates still in the mix, it’s tough to keep track of it all. To help out with that, this cheat sheet on the state of the presidential field will be periodically updated throughout the campaign season. Here’s how things look right now.

* * *

The Republicans



Gage Skidmore


JIM GILMORE

Who is he?

Right? Gilmore was governor of Virginia from 1998 to 2002. Before that, he chaired the Republican National Committee for a year. In 2008, he ran for Senate in Virginia and lost to Mark Warner by 31 points.

Is he running?

Yes. He filed his papers on July 29, 2015.

Who wants him to run?

Who knows?

Can he win?

Nah.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

Holy Freudian slip, Batman!

Wikimedia


JOHN KASICH

Who is he?

The current Ohio governor ran once before, in 2000, after a stint as Republican budget guru in the House. Between then and his election in 2010, he worked at Lehman Brothers. Molly Ball wrote a definitive profile in April.

Is he running?

Yes. His announcement was July 21, 2015 at THE Ohio State University in Columbus.

Who wants him to run?

Kasich’s pitch: He’s got better fiscal-conservative bona fides than any other candidate in the race, he’s proven he can win blue-collar voters, and he’s won twice in a crucial swing state.

Can he win the nomination?

Kasich’s strategy has long been to place strongly in New Hampshire. He’s in the tightly packed peloton well behind yellow-jacket wearing Trump in the Granite State, fighting for votes with Chris Christie and Jeb Bush— two other moderate-ish, technocratic governors. Kasich’s has been a steady presence, but it’s tough to see how he could break out.

What else do we know?

John Kasich bought a Roots CD and hated it so much he threw it out of his car window. John Kasich hated the Coen brothers’ classic Fargo so much he tried to get his local Blockbuster to quit renting it. George Will laughed at him. John Kasich is the Bill Brasky of philistinism. John Kasich probably hated that skit, too.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

Nope.

David Shankbone


CHRIS CHRISTIE

Who is he?

What’s it to you, buddy? The combative New Jerseyan is in his second term as governor and previously served as a U.S. attorney.

Is he running?

Christie kicked off his campaign June 30, 2015 at Livingston High School, his alma mater.

Who wants him to run?

Moderate and establishment Republicans who don’t like Bush or Kasich; big businessmen, led by Home Depot founder Ken Langone.

Can he win the nomination?

Doubtful. The tide of opinion had turned against Christie even before the "Bridgegate" indictments. Citing his horrific favorability numbers, FiveThirtyEight bluntly puns that “Christie's access lanes to the GOP nomination are closed.” But since snagging the endorsement of the New Hampshire Union Leader, he’s seen a small boomlet.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

We would have gone with the GIF, but sure.

Gage Skidmore


DONALD TRUMP

Who is he?

America’s sweetheart.

Is he running?

And how.

Who wants him to run?

A shocking portion of the Republican primary electorate; Democrats; white supremacists. The rest of the Republican field, along with its intellectual luminaries, however, are horrified.

Can he win the nomination?

Right up until the Iowa caucus, the political class was just starting to come around to the idea that he could. But after he slipped to a disappointing second in the Hawkeye, things could get ugly in New Hampshire and beyond.

What else do we know?

He cheats at golf, probably.

Gage Skidmore


JEB BUSH

Who is he?

The brother and son of presidents, he served two terms as governor of Florida, from 1999 to 2007.

Is he running?

Yes, as of June 15, 2015.

Who wants him to run?

Establishment Republicans; George W. Bush; major Wall Street donors.

Can he win the nomination?

It sure doesn’t look like it. Bush’s campaign is a case study in how money isn’t everything. Despite the $100 million super PAC backing him, Bush has been a feckless, adrift candidate. Every now and then a poll will show him rising to, oh, fourth or something and there will be rumors of a Bush comeback. But one look at his unfavorables shows why he’s pretty much been written off.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

Yes—y en español también.

Gage Skidmore


RICK SANTORUM

Who is he?

Santorum represented Pennsylvania in the Senate from 1995 until his defeat in 2006. He was the runner-up for the GOP nomination in 2012.

Is he running?

Yes, with a formal announcement on May 27, 2015.

Who wants him to run?

Social conservatives. The former Pennsylvania senator didn't have an obvious constituency in 2012, yet he still went a long way, and Foster Friess, who bankrolled much of Santorum's campaign then, is ready for another round.

Can he win the nomination?

Nah. As much as Santorum feels he deserves more respect for his 2012 showing, neither voters nor the press seem inclined to give it to him, and he remains trapped in the basement.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

No.

Gage Skidmore


BEN CARSON

Who is he?

A celebrated former head of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins, Carson became a conservative folk hero after a broadside against Obamacare at the 2013 National Prayer Breakfast.

Is he running?

Yes. He announced May 4, 2015.

Who wants him to run?

Grassroots conservatives. Carson has an incredibly appealing personal story—a voyage from poverty to pathbreaking neurosurgery—and none of the taint of politics.

Can he win the nomination?

Hey, it was a fun run while it lasted: Would Dr. Ben be the man to take our Trump? It wasn’t to be. Gaffe-prone, ill-informed, and incapable of managing a fractious staff, Carson has fallen from a lofty second to a distant fourth nationally. If it’s any consolation, history weighed heavily against Carson’s chances all along: Not since Dwight Eisenhower has either party nominated anyone without prior elected experience for the presidency.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

No.

Gage Skidmore


CARLY FIORINA

Who is she?

Fiorina rose through the ranks to become CEO of Hewlett-Packard from 1999 to 2005, before being ousted in an acrimonious struggle. She advised John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign and unsuccessfully challenged Senator Barbara Boxer of California in 2010.

Is she running?

Yes, as of a May 4, 2015, announcement.

Who wants her to run?

It isn’t clear exactly what Fiorina’s constituency is, but she’s a business-friendly candidate with a talent for a sharp turn of phrase or jab.

Can she win the nomination?

Fiorina went from also-ran to huge story on the strength of her first two debate performances. Then her momentum stalled, and she now leads only Santorum (and Gilmore, we guess) nationally.

What else do we know?

Fiorina’s unsuccessful 2010 Senate race against Barbara Boxer produced two of the most entertaining and wacky political ads ever, "Demon Sheep" and the nearly eight-minute epic commonly known as "The Boxer Blimp."

Does her website have a good 404 page?

No.

Wikimedia


MARCO RUBIO

Who is he?

A second-generation Cuban-American and former speaker of the Florida House, Rubio was catapulted to national fame in the 2010 Senate election, after he unexpectedly upset Governor Charlie Crist to win the GOP nomination.

Is he running?

Yes—he announced on April 13, 2015.

Who wants him to run?

Rubio enjoys establishment support, and has sought to position himself as the candidate of an interventionist foreign policy.

Could he win the nomination?

Rubio’s campaign is banking on breaking out at exactly the right time. First, that seemed like it was going to be in November, when breakout debate performances pushed him into the spotlight. Then he flatlined. Then his aides started talking about a “3-2-1” strategy, for where his targeted finish in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, respectively. Rubio nailed the 3 in Iowa and gave a pseudo-victory speech. His task now is to consolidate the anti-Cruz, anti-Trump coalition.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

It’s decent.

Wikimedia


RAND PAUL

Who is he?

An ophthalmologist and son of libertarian icon Ron Paul, he rode the 2010 Republican wave to the Senate, representing Kentucky.

Is he running?

Yes, as of April 7, 2015.

Who wants him to run?

Ron Paul fans; Tea Partiers; libertarians; civil libertarians; non-interventionist Republicans.

Can he win the nomination?

Once tabbed by Time as the most interesting man in politics, he has failed to elicit much interest from voters. The deathwatch stories in December (and September, and October) were clearly premature, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

No.

Wikimedia


TED CRUZ

Who is he?

Cruz served as deputy assistant attorney general in the George W. Bush administration and was appointed Texas solicitor general in 2003. In 2012, he ran an insurgent campaign to beat a heavily favored establishment Republican for Senate.

Is he running?

Yes. He launched his campaign March 23, 2015 at Liberty University in Virginia.

Who wants him to run?

Hardcore conservatives; Tea Partiers who worry that Rand Paul is too dovish on foreign policy; social conservatives.

Can he win the nomination?

It looks more likely than ever, especially after his commanding Iowa victory over Trump. Once dismissed as too conservative and too hated by even fellow Republicans, Cruz’s stock has risen over the course of the fall. But Cruz still contends with the fact that much of his party absolutely despises him, so much so that they're willing to back Trump. .

Does his website have a good 404 page?

No.

* * *

The Democrats



Wikimedia


HILLARY CLINTON

Who is she?

As if we have to tell you, but: She’s a trained attorney; former secretary of State in the Obama administration; former senator from New York; and former first lady.

Is she running?

Yes.

Who wants her to run?

Most of the Democratic Party.

Can she win the nomination?

Yep. But she’ll have to fight for it.

What else do we know?

The real puzzler, after so many years with Clinton on the national scene, is what we don't know. Here are 10 central questions to ask about the Hillary Clinton campaign.

Does her website have a good 404 page?

If you’re tolerant of bad puns and ’90s ’80s outfits, the answer is yes.

Wikimedia


BERNIE SANDERS

Who is he?

A self-professed socialist, Sanders represented Vermont in the U.S. House from 1991 to 2007, when he won a seat in the Senate.

Is he running?

Yes. He announced April 30, 2015.

Who wants him to run?

Far-left Democrats; Brooklyn-accent aficionados; progressives who worry that a second Clinton administration would be far too friendly to the wealthy.

Can he win the nomination?

When Sanders launched his campaign, this question seemed beside the point. That’s no longer true: Sanders is running neck and neck or even ahead of Clinton in key early primary states and regularly drawing larger crowds than her. He trails by double digits nationally and seems likely to struggle in the South, but his strong showing in Iowa will give him a boost.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

Yes, and it is quintessentially Sanders.

* * *

Third Party and Independent



Wikimedia


MICHAEL BLOOMBERG

Who is he?

The billionaire finance-and-technology entrepreneur was benevolent dictator mayor of New York from 2002 to 2013.

Is he running?

No, but there have been trial balloons launched in the press. He will reportedly decide by March.

Who wants him to run?

If the past is any indication, it’s mostly Bloomberg aides. Supposedly, Bloomberg is terrified of a Trump vs. Sanders race and would run if that was the matchup. Is there a base for Bloomberg, a fiscally conservative but socially liberal abrasive New Yorker? Seems unlikely.

What are his prospects?

Bloomberg himself has repeatedly belittled his own electability, either as an individual or, in the abstract, as a third-party candidate. And he’s probably right. It’s hard to imagine who would vote for him, especially if Clinton wins the Democratic nod: He’s slightly to the right of her, but Republicans hate him, and he makes her seem like Miss Congeniality.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

Please. This is a guy who doesn’t even think websites are necessary.

Wikimedia


JIM WEBB

Who is he?

Webb is a Vietnam War hero, author, and former secretary of the Navy. He served as a senator from Virginia from 2007 to 2013.

Is he running?

Not at the moment. Webb launched a Democratic bid July 2, 2015 but dropped it October 20, 2015. He has since made noises about mounting an independent campaign, including hiring a fundraiser.

Who wants him to run?

As a Democrat, doves; the Anybody-But-Hillary camp; and my colleague James Fallows. As an independent? Maybe some of the same socially conservative, economically populist Democrats who backed him before. But he barely registered in the race the first time around.

What are his prospects?

Bad. Every independent candidate is at best a very long shot, and Webb’s weaknesses—dislike for campaigning, weak fundraising, heterodox views—were on clear display during his Democratic bid.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

No.

Wikimedia


JILL STEIN

Who is she?

A Massachusetts resident and physician, she is a candidate of nearly Stassen-like frequency, having run for president in 2012 and a slew of other offices before that.

Is she running?

Yes. Stein announced in June 2015 that she would again seek the nomination of the Green Party, which she won in 2012.

Who wants her to run?

Stein seems to have strong support with the Green Party. She managed to collect nearly 500,000 votes in 2012—the party’s strongest showing since Ralph Nader’s disastrous 2000 run, but well short of the 2.9 million votes he got.

What are her prospects?

She seems well placed to win the nomination. Her rivals include Darryl Cherney, a musician the FBI once accused of bombing himself, and Bill Kreml, a Taoist professor emeritus of political science. It’s too soon to speculate how she might fare in the general election compared to 2012.

Does her website have a good 404 page?

Possibly not original, but kind of soothing and on-message.

Wikimedia


GARY JOHNSON

Who is he?

Oh come on, you remember Gary! He ran for the GOP nomination in 2012 and then got the Libertarian Party nod after that didn’t work out. He was previously two-term governor of New Mexico. He now runs a company that sells THC lozenges.

Is he running?  

Sure is. He announced his attempt for an encore performance with the Libertarian Party on January 6.

Who wants him to run?

As his company’s site notes, “Now that he's associated with what is being hailed the best legal cannabis product on the market, Gary may be drafted for President of the United States by a grateful nation one day.” Johnson’s also an unusually talented and successful politician to vie for the Libertarian line. The 1.3 million votes he collected in 2012 were the party’s all-time high … so to speak.

What are his prospects?

He’s running against the outlandish oddball former tech titan John McAfee in the party, so that looks good. But of his general-election chances, he told my colleague Nora Kelly, “I have no delusions of grandeur here. I know what happened last time.”

Does his website have a good 404 page?

No.

* * *

Out of the Running

Republicans



Gage Skidmore

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MIKE HUCKABEE

Who is he?

An ordained preacher, former governor of Arkansas, and Fox News host, he ran a strong campaign in 2008, finishing third, but sat out 2012.

Is he running?

No. Huckabee dropped out on February 1 after pulling less than 2 percent of the vote in the Iowa caucuses.

Who wanted him to run?

Social conservatives; evangelical Christians.

Could he have won the nomination?

No. Evangelicals, his old base, flocked to Ted Cruz instead. Huckabee’s answer was to play as a populist, but that it never really took.

Did his website have a good 404 page?

It’s pretty good.

Wikimedia


LINDSEY GRAHAM

Who is he?

A senator from South Carolina, he’s John McCain’s closest ally in the small caucus of Republicans who are moderate on many issues but very hawkish on foreign policy.

Is he running?

No sir. Graham kicked off the campaign June 1, 2015 but suspended it on December 21.

Who wanted him to run?

John McCain, naturally. Senator Kelly Ayotte, possibly. Joe Lieberman, maybe?

Could he have won the nomination?

No. But he had some fun in losing it.

What else do we know?

Graham promised to have a rotating first lady if he wins. We were rooting for Lana del Rey.

Gage Skidmore


BOBBY JINDAL

Who is he?

A Rhodes Scholar, he’s the outgoing governor of Louisiana. He previously served in the U.S. House.

Is he running?

No. He kicked off his campaign on June 24, 2015 but suspended it on November 17.

Who wanted him to run?

It’s was hard to say. Jindal assiduously courted conservative Christians, both with a powerful conversion story (he was raised Hindu but converted to Catholicism in high school) and policies (after other governors reversed course, he charged forward with a religious-freedom law). But he still trailed other social conservatives like Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee.

Could he have won the nomination?

No. Jindal never gained traction at the national level, faced an overcrowded field of social conservatives, and his stewardship of Louisiana came in for harsh criticism even from staunch fiscal conservatives.

What else do we know?

In 1994, he wrote an article called “Physical Dimensions of Spiritual Warfare,” in which he described a friend’s apparent exorcism.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

Meh. Good joke, but past its expiration date.

Gage Skidmore


RICK PERRY

Who is he?

George W. Bush’s successor as governor of Texas, he entered the 2012 race with high expectations, but sputtered out quickly. He left office in 2014 as the Lone Star State’s longest-serving governor.

Is he running?

Yes. He announced on June 4. Perry dropped out of the race on September 11, 2015.

Who wanted him to run?

Bueller?

Could he have won the nomination?

No. Perry promoters insisted that Rick 2016 was a polished, smart campaigner, totally different from the meandering, spacey Perry of 2012. It didn’t seemed to matter in this field. Perry had to quit paying his staff in South Carolina and New Hampshire, and was down to a single staffer in Iowa when he dropped out.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

That depends. Is this an “oops” joke? If so, yes.

Gage Skidmore


SARAH PALIN

Who is she?

If you have to ask now, you must not have been around in 2008. That’s when John McCain selected the then-unknown Alaska governor as his running mate. After the ticket lost, she resigned her term early and became a television personality.

Is she running?

No, despite a bizarre speech in January 2015 that made a compelling case both ways.

Who wants her to run?

Palin still has diehard grassroots fans, but there are fewer than ever.

Can she win the nomination?

No.

When will she announce?

It doesn't matter.

Gage Skidmore


MITT ROMNEY

Who is he?

The Republican nominee in 2012 was also governor of Massachusetts and a successful businessman.

Is he running?

Probably not, but who knows! He announced in late January 2015 that he would step aside, but now New York claims that the Trump boom has him reconsidering.

Who wanted him to run?

Former staffers; prominent Mormons; Hillary Clinton's team. Romney polled well, but it's hard to tell what his base would have been. Republican voters weren't exactly ecstatic about him in 2012, and that was before he ran a listless, unsuccessful campaign. Party leaders and past donors were skeptical at best of a third try.

Could he have won the nomination?

He proved the answer was yes, but it didn't seem likely to happen again.

Gage Skidmore


JOHN BOLTON

Who is he?

A strident critic of the UN and leading hawk, he was George W. Bush’s ambassador to the UN for 17 months.

Is he running?

Nope. After announcing his announcement, in the style of the big-time candidates, he posted on Facebook that he wasn’t running.

Who wanted him to run?

Even among super-hawks, he didn’t seem to be a popular pick, likely because he had no political experience.

Could he have won the nomination?

They say anything is possible in politics, but this would test the rule. A likelier outcome could be a plum foreign-policy role in a hawkish GOP presidency.

Gage Skidmore


SCOTT WALKER

Who is he?

Elected governor of Wisconsin in 2010, Walker earned conservative love and liberal hate for his anti-union policies. In 2013, he defeated a recall effort, and he won reelection the following year.

Is he running?

No. Walker dropped out of the race on September 21, 2015.

Who wanted him to run?

Walker was a favorite of conservatives who detest the labor movement because of his union-busting in Wisconsin. He attracted interest from the Koch brothers, and some establishment Republicans saw him as the perfect marriage of executive know-how, business-friendly credentials, and social conservatism without culture-warrior baggage.

Could he have won the nomination?

For months, Walker was considered—along with Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio—a top-tier contender for the nomination. Hurricane Trump hurt all three, but none more than Walker. After largely fading from view during the second presidential debate, he polled below 1 percent in a national CNN poll. Perhaps a radically different campaign would have produced a different result, but Walker didn’t seem ready for national primetime.

Did his website have a good 404 page?

Aye, matey.

Michael Vadon


GEORGE PATAKI

Who is he?

Pataki ousted incumbent Mario Cuomo in 1994 and served three terms as governor of New York.

Is he running?

No. He announced his entry on May 28, 2015, but dropped out on December 29—using free time he’d won on TV in compensation for Donald Trump’s Saturday Night Live appearance.

Who wanted him to run?

Apparently no one: His RealClearPolitics average by the time he dropped out was a neat 0.0. Establishment Northeastern Republicans once held significant sway over the party, but those days have long since passed.

Could have have won the nomination?

Nope.

Did his website have a good 404 page?

No.

* * *

Democrats



Wikimedia

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MARTIN O'MALLEY

Who is he?

He’s a former governor of Maryland and mayor of Baltimore.

Is he running?

No. O’Malley announced he was suspending his campaign after getting less than 1 percent in the February 1 Iowa caucus.

Who wanted him to run?

Not clear. He has some of the leftism of Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, but without the same grassroots excitement.

Could he have won the nomination?

No. Why O’Malley—who says all the right progressive things—couldn’t gain any momentum among progressives who seem eager for Sanders, for Warren, really for anyone but Clinton, is a fascinating conundrum.

What else do we know?

Have you heard that he plays in a Celtic rock band? You have? Oh.

Did his website have a good 404 page?

No.

Wikimedia


LAWRENCE LESSIG

Who is he?

Lessig is a professor at Harvard Law School, political activist, and occasional Atlantic contributor.

Is he running?

No. Having announced a run in early September, he dropped out on November 2, 2015.

Who wanted him to run?

Lessig’s campaign was designed to cater almost exclusively to the many Americans who are upset about the influence of money in politics. He pitched himself as a “referendum president” who would pass his proposed Citizens Equality Act of 2017, which would enact universal voting registration, campaign-finance limits, and anti-gerrymandering provisions.

Could he have won the nomination?

No. In dropping out, he cited his inability to break into the Democratic debates, but given his lack of electoral experience, his idiosyncratic platform, and the track record of his Mayday PAC in the 2014 election, he never really had a shot.

What else do we know?

In a season 6 episode of The West Wing, a fictional Lessig (played by Christopher Lloyd) worked with the White House to write a new constitution for Belarus.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

“Sorry, we’re too busy fixing democracy to design a clever 404 page!” You have time now!

Steven Senne / AP


LINCOLN CHAFEE

Who is he?

The son of beloved Rhode Island politician John Chafee, Linc took his late father’s seat in the U.S. Senate, serving as a Republican. He was governor, first as an independent and then as a Democrat.

Is he running?

No. Chafee announced his run on June 3, 2015, but ended it October 23.

Who wanted him to run?

You can meet all 10 of them in this great NPR piece.

Could he have won the nomination?

No. Chafee’s showing in the first debate was so bad that even Wolf Blitzer begged him to get out for his own reputation’s sake.

Does his website have a good 404 page?

No.

Wikimedia


JOE BIDEN

Who is he?

Biden is vice president, and the foremost American advocate for aviator sunglasses and passenger rail.

Is he running?

No. After lengthy deliberation, Biden ruled out a run on October 21, 2015.

Who wanted him to run?

The original driving force for the run seems to have been the late Beau Biden, along with his brother Hunter. An outside group called Draft Biden (slogan: “I’m Ridin’ With Biden”) tried to coax him in.

Could he have won the nomination?

It’s highly doubtful. Even when Hillary Clinton was at her weakest, she had huge organizational advantages. And past presidential campaign showed that Biden, while compelling, could be an undisciplined, self-defeating candidate.

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ELIZABETH WARREN

Who is she?

Warren has taken an improbable path from Oklahoma, to Harvard Law School, to progressive heartthrob, to Massachusetts senator.

Is she running?

Are you still scrolling down here to check? Not a chance, amigo.

Who wants her to run?

Progressive Democrats; economic populists, disaffected Obamans, disaffected Bushites.

Can she win the nomination?

No, because she’s not running.