GDP Forecasts Have Consistently Been Too High

In an article on the Federal Reserve Board's decision to raise interest rates, the Washington Post referred to the 2.4 percent median growth forecast of the Fed's Open Market Committee. For example, last December their median forecast for growth in 2015 was 2.8 percent. It now appears growth will be around 2.2 percent for the year. The Fed was not out of line with other forecasts. For example the Congressional Budget Office, which quite explicitly tries to be near the middle of major forecast...