Expecting the unexpected

Are you doing your work for an ordered market? A region where there is stability and rules and predictable outcomes? Some examples: selling to people who have purchased before, entering a market with established competitors, contributing to a media ecosystem that works in mostly predictable ways...

The alternative are blue sky arenas where unpredictability is the rule, not the exception.

Most of us don't live and work on the frontier, and we plan our lives accordingly.

Life on the frontier brings its own rewards (and risks) but there's never an advantage in imagining that it's stable. It's hard to be surprised if you establish up front that you're likely to be surprised.

It helps to know the rules of physics in the universe where you are choosing to live.