How Do Superforecasters Predict the Future?

The science of prediction is of particular interest to University of Pennsylvania professor Philip Tetlock, a political scientist who has written a new book on the subject: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

In this video, Tetlock runs through the thought processes of professional media prediction-makers whose livelihoods depend not on being right, but on being right enough.

Famous pundits virtually never make falsifiable forecasts

We know virtually nothing about the forec...