Links for 2015-10-18

Quick links to a few items I found interesting.

From the Economic Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City:

We find oil-specific demand shocks largely drove the oil price movements since mid-2014, reflecting shifts in expectations about future supply relative to future demand. In particular, the driving factors behind the decline appear to be expectations that the future supply of oil will remain higher, or at least more stable, and concerns about weakening future demand due to slowing global growth forecasts.

From a new study by James Feyrer, Erin Mansur, and Bruce Sacerdote:

The combining of horizontal drilling and hydrofracturing unleashed a boom in oil and natural gas production in the US. This technological shift interacts with local geology to create an exogenous shock to county income and employment. We measure the effects of these shocks within the county where production occurs and track their geographic propagation. Every million dollars of oil and gas extracted produces $66,000 in wage income, $61,000 in royalty payments, and 0.78 jobs within the county. Outside the immediate county but within the region, the economic impacts are over three times larger. Within 100 miles of the new production, one million dollars generates $243,000 in wages, $117,000 in royalties, and 2.49 jobs. Thus, over a third of the fracking revenue stays within the regional economy. Our results suggest new oil and gas extraction led to an increase in aggregate US employment of 725,000 and a 0.5 percent decrease in the unemployment rate during the Great Recession.

And from the always insightful Bill McBride:

Here is a review of three key demographic points:

Demographics have been favorable for apartments, and will become more favorable for homeownership.
Demographics are the key reason the Labor Participation Rate has declined.
Demographics are a key reason real GDP growth is closer to 2% than 4%.