The Center Will Hold: I'll Give You 10:1, by Bryan Caplan

Since there appear to be zero takers for my latest bet, I hereby up the odds I'm offering to 10:1.  Thus, if you Paypal me $x, I will send you $11x if the bet goes in your favor.  This provides ample extra compensation for inflation, foregone interest, and my mortality risk. 

Remember, the bet resolves as soon as a civil war in Western Europe officially surpasses 10,000 fatalities.  So if you win, you will probably win well before 30 years have passed.  If you would have accepted 10:1 odds for a 20-year bet, you should absolutely accept my terms, because I'm giving you ten extra years to win for free.

P.S. I don't include Cyprus, which is often though not always classified as non-European.

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