What if???

Yesterday, July 11, 1174 was the date of death of Amalric I, King of Jerusalem, an interesting case that proves one man can have a dramatic impact upon history, even one whom most people today have never heard of. Amalric’s death was unexpected, for he was only 38, dying of dysentery he’d contracted on a recent campaign. Had he lived, the history of the Holy Land, Syria, Egypt, England, France, and Germany would have been altered.
Saladin was able to take advantage of the kingdom’s weaknesses when it was ruled by a young leper king and torn asunder by political rivalries. Had Amalric, a strong king with an aggressive foreign policy, lived, the kingdom would not have been so vulnerable to attack. Baldwin would not have become king, disqualified once his leprosy was definitely diagnosed, nor would his sister Sybilla have become queen, making her inept husband, Guy de Lusignan, king. Without Guy to lead their army into disaster at the battle of Hattin, Saladin would not have been able to seize Jerusalem. Without the fall of Jerusalem, there would have been no Third Crusade. Richard I would not have been shipwrecked and would not have fallen into the hands of the Emperor Heinrich. It is also unlikely that he’d have died as he did, at Chalus, for his bitter war with the French king was the result of his attempts to win back the lands he’d lost to Philippe during his German captivity. In the five years that he fought Philippe after regaining his freedom, only once was Philippe able to defeat him on the field, so there is no way Philippe could have seized so much of the Angevin lands with Richard on the scene to defend them.
But while we can say with reasonable certainty that the above events would not have happened had Amalric lived and continued to rule, we cannot predict what would have occurred with this different set of facts. It is safe to say, though, that Richard would never have died peacefully in bed at an advanced age! It is possible that Heinrich could have been overthrown by his rebellious lords, that John might not have become king, that neither Saladin nor Richard would have achieved the fame that they won by combatting each other during the Third Crusade. I find the speculation concerning Amalric’s premature death to be especially intriguing because the stakes were so high for so many countries and dynasties.
History is a natural breeding ground for these What If questions. What if Edward I had been slain by that Assassin’s poisoned dagger in Acre? (If only!) What if Simon de Montfort had pulled off a miracle and prevailed at Evesham? If Edward IV had heeded his head, not his nether regions, and realized how foolish it would be to wed Elizabeth Woodville? Or if he’d not died at forty? What if Richard III had won the battle at Bosworth? No wonder some writers are drawn to alternative fiction!