Why the real election result could be voting reform | Martin Kettle

With two-party dominance fading fast, might Labour and the Tories seek joint salvation in proportional representation?

On 7 May, Britain is widely expected to elect a hung parliament. This article offers a plausible scenario for the result, and a more speculative but optimistic scenario for what could follow. It is based on the polls and on recent political pledges, as well as on precedent from the 1920s. It illustrates the dilemmas that may be awaiting Britain in just two weeks.

When the results are in, the Conservatives have lost seats but remain the largest single party in votes and seats. Labour makes gains in England and Wales, but sustains huge losses to the Scottish National party north of the border. The SNP commands almost all Scottish seats. The Liberal Democrats lose half their MPs but the other half hold on. Ukip gets lots of votes, but only a tiny handful of seats. Nothing much changes in Northern Ireland, or for the Greens or Plaid Cymru.

The SNP cannot risk going into the 2016 Holyrood elections as the party that brought Labour down

Related: General election 2015: If this deadlock holds, a battle is coming over Ed Miliband’s legitimacy

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