No One Catches The Ryan Express
I made a little table that estimates how long a given active pitcher would have to pitch to approach the Nolan Ryan strikeout record. I took the top 50 or so active pitchers, all with at least a thousand strikeouts, and calculated how many strikeouts they would need to tie the Ryan record of 5714 strikeouts, and how long it would take them to do that if they (incredibly unrealistically) averaged 200 strikeouts a year, every year, with no serious injury. (This includes some recent retirees who are technically listed as active on the Baseball Reference site.)
This table makes it clear (as if anyone doubted it) that only King Felix and Clayton Kershaw have even the foggiest chance of catching Ryan, and that it will take them twenty years to do that if they do.
It’s depressing, really. Take a look at Justin Verlander–he’s done everything a pitcher can or should aspire to do, he’s done it for ten years, and he’s going to have to pitch until he’s fifty, pitching more strikeouts per year than he’s averaged so far, to catch up with Nolan Ryan. Or take Stephen Strasburg–because of his injuries, he’s only got 746 K’s, which means it’s going to take him 25 years to catch up to Ryan, and that’s as long as he’s been alive on this planet.
I think, really, the only way that anyone in this generation catches up to Ryan would be if CC Sabathia learned the knuckleball and managed to pitch until he was half a century old. But come on.
Current Rank
Pitcher
Seasons Pitched
Age
Total Strikeouts
Distance Behind Ryan
Seasons to catch up (averaging 200K/year)
Age when caught up
8
Felix Hernandez
10
28
1951
3763
18.815
46.815
26
Clayton Kershaw
7
26
1445
4269
21.345
47.345
1
CC Sabathia
14
33
2437
3277
16.385
49.385
17
Cole Hamels
9
30
1707
4007
20.035
50.035
23
Matt Cain
10
29
1506
4208
21.04
50.04
18
Zack Greinke
11
30
1687
4027
20.135
50.135
19
Tim Lincecum
8
30
1644
4070
20.35
50.35
11
Justin Verlander
10
31
1830
3884
19.42
50.42
36
Yovani Gallardo
8
28
1226
4488
22.44
50.44
43
David Price
7
28
1147
4567
22.835
50.835
28
Max Scherzer
7
29
1321
4393
21.965
50.965
50
Gio Gonzalez
7
28
1072
4642
23.21
51.21
25
Jon Lester
9
30
1457
4257
21.285
51.285
5
Jake Peavy
13
33
2027
3687
18.435
51.435
29
Scott Kazmir
10
30
1319
4395
21.975
51.975
22
Ervin Santana
10
31
1507
4207
21.035
52.035
32
Ubaldo Jimenez
9
30
1288
4426
22.13
52.13
10
Dan Haren
12
33
1881
3833
19.165
52.165
52
Chad Billingsley
8
29
1037
4677
23.385
52.385
35
Edwin Jackson
12
30
1227
4487
22.435
52.435
20
James Shields
9
32
1626
4088
20.44
52.44
27
Jered Weaver
9
31
1405
4309
21.545
52.545
41
Francisco Liriano
9
30
1184
4530
22.65
52.65
47
Matt Garza
9
30
1127
4587
22.935
52.935
9
Josh Beckett
14
34
1901
3813
19.065
53.065
55
Anibal Sanchez
9
30
1037
4677
23.385
53.385
39
Ricky Nolasco
9
31
1191
4523
22.615
53.615
7
Johan Santana
12
35
1988
3726
18.63
53.63
2
A.J. Burnett
16
37
2370
3344
16.72
53.72
30
Adam Wainwright
9
32
1306
4408
22.04
54.04
31
Oliver Perez
12
32
1300
4414
22.07
54.07
12
Cliff Lee
13
35
1824
3890
19.45
54.45
13
John Lackey
12
35
1790
3924
19.62
54.62
15
Mark Buehrle
15
35
1779
3935
19.675
54.675
4
Ryan Dempster
16
37
2075
3639
18.195
55.195
54
Francisco Rodriguez
13
32
1005
4709
23.545
55.545
42
C.J. Wilson
10
33
1149
4565
22.825
55.825
16
Aaron Harang
13
36
1734
3980
19.9
55.9
24
Kyle Lohse
14
35
1504
4210
21.05
56.05
49
Joe Blanton
10
33
1086
4628
23.14
56.14
6
Tim Hudson
16
38
2016
3698
18.49
56.49
14
Randy Wolf
15
37
1786
3928
19.64
56.64
34
Erik Bedard
11
35
1246
4468
22.34
57.34
37
Wandy Rodriguez
10
35
1209
4505
22.525
57.525
44
Jason Marquis
14
35
1137
4577
22.885
57.885
46
Chris Capuano
10
35
1134
4580
22.9
57.9
21
Bronson Arroyo
15
37
1526
4188
20.94
57.94
33
Brad Penny
14
36
1273
4441
22.205
58.205
51
Joel Pineiro
12
35
1058
4656
23.28
58.28
3
Bartolo Colon
17
41
2101
3613
18.065
59.065
45
Bruce Chen
16
37
1136
4578
22.89
59.89
40
Jamey Wright
19
39
1189
4525
22.625
61.625
48
R.A. Dickey
12
39
1089
4625
23.125
62.125
