My Thoughts on Authors and 2015
I said in my video blog last week that I’d do a post about why I think 2015 could be a challenging year for authors and publishers. Here goes…
Before I get into it, I said “authors and publishers,” but after thinking about it further, I concluded that it will definitely be a challenging year for authors (regardless of how they were published). Publishers may or may not be affected. I’ve focused on authors in this post.
Over the past few months, I’ve noticed that some authors are reporting that their sales are down. This is interesting, because most people naturally only report successes in public forums. Few people will admit to poor sales or being unhappy with the way things are going. So the fact that authors are saying on forums and blogs, “My sales are down,” and “I’m doing worse than I was last year, even though I have more books out,” and other things along those lines, says to me that there are many more silent authors experiencing the same thing.
Some authors are pointing to the introduction of Kindle Unlimited as the culprit. I’m not so sure. Anecdotal evidence suggests that books in Kindle Unlimited get more visibility on Amazon than books not in the program, and voracious readers who buy a lot of ebooks are more likely to use a subscription service. But to me, that doesn’t account for the lower sales numbers that many are experiencing. I’d expect revenue to drop for books in Kindle Unlimited because of Amazon’s silly compensation model (though revenues would only drop for longer books, because of the silly compensation model). I wouldn’t expect the number of sales/borrows to drop.
I think there are two more basic reasons for why the sales waters are choppier these days, and I’m certainly not alone in pointing to these two reasons.
Supply and Demand
The supply of books is growing at an incredible rate, but the number of readers isn’t. I read a statistic at some point that said about 40,000 books are uploaded to the Kindle store every month, and it wouldn’t surprise me if that number has gone up since then. Growing supply and static demand means that each available item will sell fewer units. Of course, there will always be exceptions.
Now, as a reader, I wouldn’t want to go back to the days when a small group of people in NYC decided what everyone could read, and most of what they chose was based on what white heterosexuals would read. The avalanche of books isn’t a problem for me, the reader. I’m not having a problem finding books to read, and I haven’t heard of any other readers having a problem, either. It’s a problem for authors, not readers.
(Publishers might not be as affected because selling small numbers of a bunch of books can be equivalent to selling large numbers of a few books. Most authors don’t have tens or hundreds of books for sale.)
Ebook Sales are Flattening
The heady days of ebook sales growing exponentially from quarter to quarter are over. Ebook sales are flattening. I think there are two reasons for this. First, the majority of readers who are going to move from print to ebook have already done so. Second, there are too many free books floating around. Some people’s devices are stuffed with them.
This is more of a problem for indie authors than it is for those who go the traditional route, because most of us sell more ebooks than print books. Our print books usually aren’t available in brick and mortar stores. Our fortunes are tied to ebook sales.
The Consequences
I’m seeing two problems for authors. First, no matter how much promotion you do these days, you might not sell many books. There are simply too many available. As a result, many authors feel as if they’re on a promotional hamster wheel. They’re doing a lot of work for little gain. By work, I mean the book promotion, not the writing.
Over the past few months, I’ve seen more “I’m no longer going to publish/submit my work” and “I’m out, folks. Good luck to you” posts than I’ve ever seen before. I understand it. If an author’s primary goal is to sell books and make money (and there’s nothing wrong with that), why keep publishing when nothing you try moves books? It’s natural to take stock of the amount of hours (and sometimes money) that goes into promotional efforts and then ask whether it’s worth it. For some, the answer will be no.
The second problem is specific to indie authors (though publishers might experience it, too), and that’s production costs. Indie authors who strive to put out a quality book by using professional editors are finding it more difficult to recover their upfront costs. I’ve seen a lot of courses and posts out there about “How to self-publish for free!” but serious writers use editors. Some use cover designers, as well. All of this costs money. Service professionals like editors aren’t going to lower their fees because it’s more difficult to sell books, or because authors are receiving less compensation for their work from programs like Kindle Unlimited.
What about me?
Has this affected me? Well, I’ll be honest. I’ve experienced a sales dip, and since I don’t write blockbusters (meaning that my books have lesbian characters but aren’t romance or erotica), there’s a danger that I won’t be able to recover the production costs for the new stuff I publish. That’s one reason why I’ve only committed to Deiform Four and the Daros Chronicles this year.
Making money isn’t my primary motivation to write or publish. If it was, I’d dump the lesbian characters and write mainstream fiction with straight characters. If I wanted to stick with lesbian characters, I’d write lesbian romance. But I have no interest in doing either of those things. It would suck the joy from writing. I’ll continue to write my type of fiction, because I’d rather not write than do otherwise. I also think it’s important to have a diversity of stories out there (one of my motivating factors when it comes to publishing).
Having said all that, I need to at least break even on the production costs I’ve invested in a book. I’m not going to go into debt to publish my work. If I find that sales aren’t good enough to cover my production costs, I’ll have to cut back on what I publish.
Sales expectations have always been lower for writers like me who don’t write to market (in my case, meaning that my books have lesbian characters but aren’t romance or erotica. Yes, I’m repeating myself.). In this climate, I think things have worsened. Our books never got much visibility to begin with. Now they hardly get any.
I really enjoy writing—my primary motivation for writing! I’ve always seen publishing as an optional step, albeit one I enjoy doing. I like it when people read my work. But if sales continue to decline, that means few people are reading my work, which would make publishing a less attractive endeavour. Again, it’s a matter of looking at the work/money involved vs. the benefit, and deciding whether an activity is worth doing.
I tend to promote in spurts. I’ve never been comfortable pushing my books. I just don’t have the personality for it. This year, I’ve decided to only do stuff I enjoy. Some of it might be a little different and not go along with conventional wisdom, but since many promotional efforts don’t get results these days, I figure I might as well stick to stuff that’s fun for me. Maybe doing so will move more books. Maybe it won’t.
I don’t mean to make this sound all doom and gloom. I’m committed to publishing in 2015. Because the publishing world changes so rapidly, I’m never willing to plan more than a year in advance. Right now, all I know for sure is that 2015 will bring change.
What do you think about the state of the book world today?
My Thoughts on Authors and 2015 is a post from: Sarah Ettritch
