Why Are ERC and Oriol Junqueras Wrong?

This article explains why I think ERC and Oriol Junqueras were wrong to reject Artur Mas’s original route map for Catalan independence proposal. It probably won’t make me any friends but is a reflection of my own frustration at the lack of agreement that has lasted nearly a month now and also blogging these ideas as they are happening will serve as useful notes when I come to write the process up with the benefit of hindsight.

I would like to stress that these ideas are certainly not written in stone and I would be happy to modify my position if anyone can enlighten me as to how Esquerra’s approach can be beneficial to the process. The priority should definitely be working out how we can take the next step towards independence firmly and confidently. Before such an important step, it’s not actually good enough to blindly say that an agreement will be reached. The nature of the agreement is also crucial in order to ensure that the elections give the democratic mandate necessary to start the construction of the new Republic of Catalonia.

For this reason, the more I think about ERC and Oriol Junqueras’ strange behaviour over the last few weeks, the less sense it makes. Whatever you think about Artur Mas, CiU and the single list, the effect of Junqueras confrontational attitude has only served to block the Catalan independence process. I thought Junqueras and ERC were impatient for an independent Catalonia as soon as possible. If that really were the case Junqueras would have modified his position a few days after it became clear that Artur Mas wasn’t prepared to accept their conditions. To be perfectly honest, the stalling strikes me as political incompetence although as I stated above, I’m perfectly prepared to modify my position if somebody can help me see how it may benefit the process.

Enthusiasm for Mas’s Proposal

I have to admit that when Artur Mas gave his “Time to Decide, Time to Work Together” speech on November 25th, I was completely enamoured by his proposal. A single list made up mainly of non-politicians with the political parties temporarily removed seemed the perfect way to capture the enthusiasm following the 9N vote. Political differences had been conspicuous by their absence throughout the main events of the independence process up to that point and furthermore, by removing party politics, the single list option would make the so-called plebiscitary elections much more referendum-like.

I also thought a time-scale of 18 months of negotiations, the same period Scotland would have had to negotiate independence had the Yes vote won, was realistic and that from an international point of view, having a definitive referendum at the end of this period was probably a good idea. However, these were minor details and were obviously negotiable. What would have been best for everyone concerned would have been to reach a broad agreement and then hammer out the details in private.

When the ANC gave their support to Mas’s single list idea at their meeting in Cornellà the following Saturday, I was absolutely over the moon. The momentum and unity of the previous weeks would be maintained and I really felt that independence for Catalonia had just taken a few giant steps closer to becoming a reality.

I knew that Esquerra Republicana and their leader had different ideas but if a basic collaboration agreement could be reached reasonably quickly, even elements such as single versus multiple lists would be negotiable. When Junqueras gave his “Call to a New Country” speech in Barcelona exactly a week after Artur Mas’s opening shot, I was excited to hear what the Esquerra Republicana leader had to offer. What interesting details would he add that would make the pro-independence arguments stronger and more convincing?

Frustration and Annoyance at Junqueras

I’ve mentioned in a previous post how frustrated I was by what I considered to be Junqueras’ bumbling opening but with hindsight I realise that I basically agreed with his point that social issues had to be placed centre stage and also the ideas of tolerance, inclusion and respect for not just Spanish-speaking Catalans but also Catalans with much farther flung origins are very close to my heart. His emphasis on constituent elections rather than plebiscitary ones and a concentration government that would start building a new Catalonia rather than asking Spain for permission to do so both seemed reasonable. To be perfectly honest, despite my preferences, I might even be prepared to be persuaded on the idea of the political parties standing separately but adding a tag such as “for Independence” to their names. The ideas were not really the problem.

No, the problem was the attitude of confrontation. Basically what Junqueras had done was to set himself up in opposition to Mas by saying these are Esquerra Republicana’s ideas and they are different to Convergència i Unió’s ideas. All of a sudden, in one fell swoop, he returned the whole inspiring independence process to the mundane terrain of party politics and personal and political rivalry. Oriol Junqueras and ERC versus Artur Mas and CiU. One of us has to back down. One of us has to be the winner. In my opinion, that was his big mistake.

The President’s Prerogative

One might say, and many have since the spat broke out nearly a month ago, that Artur Mas started it by making such a forthright speech in the first place and by virtually setting up the referendum-like single list idea as a condition for early elections to be called. This is arguable, I feel.

As President of Catalonia, it was up to Artur Mas to take the initiative and anyone familiar with his personal and political style will be fully aware of the directness of his approach. As the only person with the prerogative to call elections, it should also be no surprise to hear him set out some conditions, which were firstly, that the elections had to serve as a referendum that could be clearly interpreted by the Catalan people, the Spanish government and the international community and secondly, that the pro-independence movement should be capable of winning them.

He also stressed that he was not speaking on behalf of his political party Convergència but purely in a personal capacity as President of the Generalitat. The core of his idea was to remove party politics from the process and for this reason, he was prepared to significantly reduce CiU’s possible participation in the interim government. Party politics could come back once the Republic of Catalonia was fully constituted. Now was not the time for fighting amongst ourselves, so let’s take these points one by one.

As I stated at the beginning, I was definitely in favour of the single list. I felt the impetus of the movement would make it a winner and as plebiscitary elections are such a novel idea, there was no clear data which proved conclusively whether single or multiple lists would garner more votes. It seemed to me that everyone was standing in favour of an independent Catalonia. Left-wingers would remain left-wingers and right-wingers would remain right-wingers but for a short period only thy would all work together for a common cause. The situation was extremely easy to understand and the results would be very easy to interpret.

I also liked the idea of an interim government being made up of a mixture of public figures and experts. These would be the people who would end up drafting the essential documents for the new country. The fact that they were not party members and would also be obliged to retire from politics at the end of their term of office would mean that they would have no, or at least fewer, vested interests. People like this, carefully chosen, would be ideal for creating a new state based on intelligent and innovative ideas.

Why I Don’t Like ERC’s Proposals

By directly opposing this, I felt that ERC and Junqueras were not prepared to sacrifice their own party political and personal interests in benefit of the Republic of Catalonia. This is very strange since they tirelessly profess that they are the only guarantee of independence.

ERC did in fact suggest that public figures and experts should also stand on the separate lists but this idea seems full of problems. Firstly, if there are at least three main parties standing, each with lists of 135 candidates, that means a total of 405 public figures and experts will be required. Inevitably, they’d end up being chosen according to different criteria by each party and also by standing on a particular list, the public figure or expert would be implying support for that particular party. Party politics raises its ugly head once again. Furthermore, after the election, once a coalition concentration government was forming, there would inevitably be another round of arguments about which public figures and experts were the best.

However, Esquerra’s main argument centres on the fact, according to them, that separate lists have more chance of convincing undecided voters to support independence. This supposition is based on stats from the 9N vote. If we assume that the 1.9 million Catalans who voted in favour of independence, the so-called Si-Si voters, are unconditionals, to be on the safe side, the independence movement needs another 300-500,000 voters in favour of independence to win.

Consequently, people who are still undecided need to be convinced and Esquerra seem to think that they have a better chance on their own because many left-leaning Spanish speakers are instantly put off by the right-wing snobby Catalanists of Convergència i Unió. This is debatable but one thing that seems very certain to me, at least, is that the most convincing argument in favour of Catalan independence is a united front of support. If I was undecided seeing people from various political tendencies all agreeing on one single point would be a massive argument in favour.

Tension and Confrontation

The result of Junqueras’ confrontation with Mas is mainly that Catalan and, even worse, Spanish-language newspapers and news bulletins talk mainly about the differences between the two supposedly pro-independence leaders rather than the differences between Catalonia and the Spanish state. Convincing arguments in favour of independence for Catalonia are the tax deficit and the Spanish government’s lack of investment in Catalonia, the continual attacks on the Catalan language, culture and education system, the difficulties placed by Spain’s government on creating and a whole host of other issues.

This is what we should have been discussing since early December in a pre-campaign period prior to the calling of elections for February. Unfortunately, the hostile relations between ERC and CiU have meant the main points of discussion have been single versus multiple lists and whether Mas and Junqueras are going to reach an agreement or not. Both of which are complete red herrings given the urgency of the moment.

Another thing that has happened is that supporters of both sides have started to throw accusations and insults. Things like Artur Mas and CiU don’t really want independence and referring to them and their supporters as ‘nou indepes’, new converts to the pro-independence cause, implying that ERC are the only true bearers of the flame is both infantile and illogical.

Independence for Catalonia is only a feasible option now because many people, including the CiU-supporting middle-classes, have been convinced that remaining part of Spain is unworkable for Catalonia. This process began in earnest initially after the adverse Constitutional Court ruling on the Estatut in July 2010 and then gathered pace following the massive Diada demonstration of September 11th 2012. If ERC were at all coherent they would celebrating the fact that these new converts are bringing the possibility of independence closer rather than jealously guarding their little plot of political power.

Furthermore, their central argument is that separate lists will attract more of the undecided voters. However, whether the resulting government is an interim government or a government of concentration so all the pro-independence parties, including CUP, are going to have to work together in a national coalition in order to take Catalonia to full independence. Voters already know this and it will obviously become clearer throughout the electoral campaign as the various political formations group together under pro-independence, federal reform and anti-independence banners. The only thing Esquerra’s stance is doing is delaying the future coalition and causing unnecessary arguments, which if the current state of tension is anything to go by could well frighten of undecided voters.

More Political Rivals

Another serious point is the eruption of CUP, the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular, particularly following the visit of Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias last week. In fact, people have asked why I’m not equally annoyed with CUP as I am with ERC for not wanting to form part of a single candidacy for independence, and my reasons are twofold. Firstly, apart from the odd statement from CUP number two Quim Arrufat (he won’t like me saying that given that CUP is an assembly-based party but that is how he’s perceived), the party hasn’t taken an openly confrontational stance and certainly haven’t given the impression that they were involved in a power struggle to grapple the independence standard from CiU unlike Junqueras’ very obvious attempt to take protagonism away from Artur Mas.

This takes us on to the second reason. Basically, with only three deputies in the current Catalan Parliament and with a projected six or seven after elections, CUP haven’t been considered a major player. Their role in attracting disgruntled, particularly young left-wing Catalanist voters, is obviously important and they would obviously be invited to form part of the government but they haven’t appeared to be crucial.

CiU currently have 50 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia whilst ERC occupy 21 and recent polls suggest, standing on their own, the two major parties would win 35-36 seats each. As there are 135 deputies in the Catalan Parliament, 68 seats are required to form a majority government so in theory CiU and ERC could form the transition government and then come to agreements with other parties, such as CUP and also ICV or even PSC on certain issues in order to make the government more stable and have everyone working together to create the infrastructures for the new country.

Actually, if these poll results are to be trusted (which they probably aren’t) Esquerra Republicana’s stance looks even more pointless. The current tally of combined CiU/ERC seats is 71 and the predicted tally is between 70 and 72 so ERC’s motivation seems to me to be purely about wanting a bigger piece of the political pie. Hardly a good reason for putting the whole independence process at risk.

Anyway, back to CUP. As I was saying, until recently they appeared to be a relatively marginal political option. However, events over the past couple of weeks might be changing this.

Last Saturday at the first big Podemos meeting in Barcelona, Pablo Iglesias singled out CUP leader (sorry!) David Fernández out for a couple of personal attack. One would have thought that if Podemos were coming in peace and brotherhood, the assembly-based CUP would be their natural allies but it’s pretty obvious that their pro-unionist imperialism has nothing to do with peace and brotherhood and they were here in Catalonia on a vote-catching exercise. However, by identifying them as their main political rival and also personally attacking, the extremely honest, committed and affable David Fernández, Iglesias did a lot to rally left-wing Catalanist support for the CUP. Iconic Catalan singer and nominal Esquerra supporter Lluís Llach has been tweeting in their support this week.

The other big news this week has been a possible agreement between the CUP and Procés Constituent, led by radical nun Teresa Forcades and economist and long-time activist Arcadi Oliveres, who may stand together in the forthcoming elections as Crida Constituent. This new formation would combine the grassroots organisation of CUP with Forcades’ media clout and Oliveres’ kudos as one of the ideologues behind the Indignats movement and would be more than capable of slugging it out with Podemos here in Catalonia and would probably end up taking a lot of votes from Esquerra Republicana.

In fact, this would be my position. Although from my support for Artur Mas in this article might make you think I’m a conservative, I’m actually naturally drawn to a political position quite a lot further to the left of Esquerra’s social democracy. My point here is that a single unitary list is the best way to go about deciding whether we want independence or not and then once that decision is taken we can get on with normal left-right politics.

Votes to CiU?

Given that ERC have been the main left-wing alternative to CiU, I have given them my support throughout the whole process and one of the things that has annoyed about Junqueras’ attitude over the last month is that it has meant I have lost the party I would naturally vote for. If CUP and Procés Constituent end up creating a credible left-wing Catalanist alternative, I know where my vote will be going in the future.

This naturally brings me onto the subject of the potential loss of votes to ERC in general. They might not think this is going to happen but judging from what I see on the social networks and talking to friends, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they suffer a major decrease in the next elections, which will be the municipals in May 2015. This is a bit of a shame because I quite fancied Alfred Bosch as Mayor of Barcelona but after this month of misery, they’re certainly not getting my vote again.

As I mentioned above, some ERC votes may well go to Crida Constituent if it ever becomes a reality but I think most of them will go back to CiU, which is where many of them came from in the first place. This has become increasingly clear at all the dinner parties I’ve had to go to over the Christmas period. Most of my partner’s friends are relatively conservative middle-class Catalans and many of them voted Esquerra in the last elections of November 2012, often egged on by me, because they believed that ERC were the best guarantee for taking Catalonia to independence. This attitude is changing and the general tone has been that ERC are being stupid and stubborn and most of those I’ve spoken to have no intention of voting for them again.

This another reason why I think ERC and Oriol Junqueras’ stance is completely mistaken. Not only have they blocked the process which they are supposedly in favour of but their behaviour is extremely unpopular and will lead them to lose votes. This is not just stubborn but is also politically incompetent.

Will Elections Be Called?

As I approach the end of this rambling overview, it’s worth taking a look at ways out of this blockage and to be perfectly honest, I hope I’m proved completely wrong but it looks quite difficult to me at the moment. Let me remind you that although I favour Artur Mas’s single list idea because it encourages unity, is referendum-like and is easily interpretable by all players, my problem is not with ERC’s and Junqueras’ ideas regarding the multiple lists and the route map for independence but rather the confrontational stance that was immediately interpreted as a bid for control of the independence process by most people I spoke to at least.

The problem now is that someone has to back down and the situation is Win-Lose rather than Win-Win. For the reasons already mentioned, it’s become increasingly difficult for Esquerra to back down basically because the loss of face will mean a loss of credibility, influence and ultimately votes.

Artur Mas isn’t going to back down firstly because he’s the only person with the prerogative to call elections, secondly because he’s convinced he’s right I think and thirdly because he’s not going to allow Catalonia to take a step in the dark, however unpopular he might become as a result. He is a conservative, after all! Esquerra supporters can shout “Elections now!” until they’re blue in the face but elections won’t get called until there is a solid reliable agreement on what’s going to happen immediately after the elections. Assuming the pro-independence forces win irrespective of the format, there has to be a clear plan for what’s going to happen next.

The Declaration of Independence is the most crucial point in the process so far and if it’s not done correctly, it could easily blow up in our faces. We have to be very clear about how the structures of state are going to be put in place, how and when the gradual unhooking of the Catalan Republic from the Spanish state is going to happen and also have guarantees on the international support or acceptance Catalonia is likely to get from Day One.

We are not talking about election campaigns and a power struggle between two egotistical politicians now, we are talking about the creation of a new European state, the Republic of Catalonia. The purpose of the new state is not to be able to wave Catalan flags and sing Els Segadors at sporting events but rather to create a society that is more just, transparent, honest and prosperous.

All of us involved in the Catalan independence are fully aware that immediately after independence, however well it’s done, there will be a period of instability. If the process is done badly it could end up being a total disaster. There’s foreign capital ready to flee if it looks like things are going badly, international governments ready to turn their backs on the new country if things aren’t done as democratically as possible and a Spanish state rubbing its hands in glee, ready to send the forces of ‘law and order’ at the sign of the slightest disturbance.

However unpopular he might end up being, Artur Mas would be well-advised not to call elections unless all the agreements are rock solid and at the moment, there are few signs of this happening. That is why ERC and Junqueras were mistaken in making a direct challenge for control of the process. All of a sudden independence for Catalonia became a million times more difficult. We may well be regretting this moment for centuries to come.

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