The 2012 Outlook

Mark Thoma posts the SF Fed growth forecast:

If this comes to pass it would be an enormous human tragedy, with an unemployment rate wildly higher than it ought to be for years and years. The loss in output relative to potential under this scenario is a total disaster. And yet, if Larry Bartels is correct about voter myopia, it's a perfectly adequate 2012 growth rate in isolation to get Barack Obama re-elected.