Kuperberg’s parable

Recently, longtime friend-of-the-blog Greg Kuperberg wrote a Facebook post that, with Greg’s kind permission, I’m sharing here.

A parable about pseudo-skepticism in response to climate science, and science in general.

Doctor: You ought to stop smoking, among other reasons because smoking causes lung cancer.

Patient: Are you sure? I like to smoke. It also creates jobs.

D: Yes, the science is settled.

P: All right, if the science is settled, can you tell me when I will get lung cancer if I continue to smoke?

D: No, of course not, it’s not that precise.

P: Okay, how many cigarettes can I safely smoke?

D: I can’t tell you that, although I wouldn’t recommend smoking at all.

P: Do you know that I will get lung cancer at all no matter how much I smoke?

D: No, it’s a statistical risk. But smoking also causes heart disease.

P: I certainly know smokers with heart disease, but I also know non-smokers with heart disease. Even if I do get heart disease, would you really know that it’s because I smoke?

D: No, not necessarily; it’s a statistical effect.

P: If it’s statistical, then you do know that correlation is not causation, right?

D: Yes, but you can also see the direct effect of smoking on lungs of smokers in autopsies.

P: Some of whom lived a long time, you already admitted.

D: Yes, but there is a lot of research to back this up.

P: Look, I’m not a research scientist, I’m interested in my case. You have an extended medical record for me with X-rays, CAT scans, blood tests, you name it. You can gather more data about me if you like. Yet you’re hedging everything you have to say.

D: Of course, there’s always more to learn about the human body. But it’s a settled recommendation that smoking is bad for you.

P: It sounds like the science is anything but settled. I’m not interested in hypothetical recommendations. Why don’t you get back to me when you actually know what you’re talking about. In the meantime, I will continue to smoke, because as I said, I enjoy it. And by the way, since you’re so concerned about my health, I believe in healthy skepticism.