History as a Guide
(NY Times) The resentment and anger driving American politics this year won't disappear anytime soon. Indeed, we could be entering one of the most contentious chapters in our history.
Elections this November are likely to produce even more gridlock in Washington than in the past, satisfying no one. Conservative insurgents will probably win enough victories to put the brakes on big government but with President Obama still in the White House and Senate Democrats able to filibuster, conservatives won't have the power they need and want to achieve their ultimate objective: rolling back central government. If wisdom prevails, the two sides will try to work out compromises on urgent problems like deficits, but there is much more chance of paralysis -- and continued frustration.
Meanwhile, economists increasingly think that it could be three to five years or more before growth and jobs return. One presidential adviser worries that risks are growing -- perhaps to a 30 percent level -- that we could follow the path of Japan, enduring a lost decade or two. That would guarantee more turmoil in our politics.
History also shows that populist movements often have staying power. Remember William Jennings Bryan? He became the spokesman for the farmers revolt of the 1890s and was the Democratic nominee for president in three separate elections – 1896, 1900 and 1908. Or think, too, of the Goldwater movement of the 1960s -- that started as a populist revolt and had its share of wing nuts. (Remember Robert Welch and the John Birch Society?) But it eventually flowered into the candidacy of Ronald Reagan and has exercised a powerful influence for more than 40 years.
The Tea Party movement hasn't yet found a strong champion like Reagan or even Bryan (Sarah Palin comes closest), but if it does, it could become part of the mainstream and be a force for years to come.
In the meantime, the gravest risk is that America will be so fractured and torn apart in the next few years that we will be unable to govern ourselves and will decline as a great nation. One fervently hopes not, but if we fail, the resentment and anger we see now will be child's play.
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/...
Elections this November are likely to produce even more gridlock in Washington than in the past, satisfying no one. Conservative insurgents will probably win enough victories to put the brakes on big government but with President Obama still in the White House and Senate Democrats able to filibuster, conservatives won't have the power they need and want to achieve their ultimate objective: rolling back central government. If wisdom prevails, the two sides will try to work out compromises on urgent problems like deficits, but there is much more chance of paralysis -- and continued frustration.
Meanwhile, economists increasingly think that it could be three to five years or more before growth and jobs return. One presidential adviser worries that risks are growing -- perhaps to a 30 percent level -- that we could follow the path of Japan, enduring a lost decade or two. That would guarantee more turmoil in our politics.
History also shows that populist movements often have staying power. Remember William Jennings Bryan? He became the spokesman for the farmers revolt of the 1890s and was the Democratic nominee for president in three separate elections – 1896, 1900 and 1908. Or think, too, of the Goldwater movement of the 1960s -- that started as a populist revolt and had its share of wing nuts. (Remember Robert Welch and the John Birch Society?) But it eventually flowered into the candidacy of Ronald Reagan and has exercised a powerful influence for more than 40 years.
The Tea Party movement hasn't yet found a strong champion like Reagan or even Bryan (Sarah Palin comes closest), but if it does, it could become part of the mainstream and be a force for years to come.
In the meantime, the gravest risk is that America will be so fractured and torn apart in the next few years that we will be unable to govern ourselves and will decline as a great nation. One fervently hopes not, but if we fail, the resentment and anger we see now will be child's play.
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/...
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