Beware of Ghosts on Your Sales Forecast…

Tis’ the season for ghouls and goblins to come out of nowhere to surprise even the strongest of heart. It’s also the time of year that ensures dentists will have a full slate of pediatric business four to six months from now as kiddies cram as much candy as possible into their little sugar-hungry mouths.

With the end of Q4 looming just two months away, however, perhaps we should check and see if there are any "ghosts" on our sales forecast. What do I mean by having a ghost on the forecast? Have you ever seen a deal forecasted with a 95% probability to close in March, and then it carries over into April? And it remains on the forecast at 95% in June, July, August, and for whatever reason it still hasn’t closed and it’s now October? While it’s possible that one or more of these deals may indeed close this month, it’s also possible that you’re chasing a few ghosts.

Let’s face it. Everyone likes to have a robust sales forecast. Just on percentages, the bigger your forecast, the more likely you are to hit your number, right? Perhaps, but that’s only true if the deals are indeed qualified and real opportunities that are going to close.

How can you tell if a deal is real, or not? All you have to do is ask the right question(s). For example: It’s worth noting that I gravitate to questions that don’t make customers uncomfortable or try to put them on the spot, yet still give me an accurate read on where I stand in the deal. For example, I might ask:

Salesperson: “Mr. Customer, I have forecasted this opportunity to close in October based on the conversations we’ve had to date. Can I ask…is that still a reasonable target, or should I tell my boss something different?”

If you have any semblance of a relationship with your customer, they won’t want to want you to look bad in front of your manager. Thus, they might tell you, “No, you might want to push it out a few months to be safe?”

“Safe?” you might ask. “What exactly is happening that could push the deal out?”

Here’s another way to ask the same question.

Salesperson: “Ms. Prospect, are we still in good shape to wrap this up by the end of the month, or is it possible that something might cause this deal  to get pushed out?”

Critics of this strategy might argue that you’re giving the customer an “out.” Let me clue you in on a little secret: They already have an out! Customers are well aware that they don’t have to buy from you, and certainly not on your time schedule. Said differently, I believe it’s rare that customers think to themselves, “We pretty much have to buy from this salesperson because he didn’t give us an out.” Really? Thus, I am willing to trade all of the “outs” I’m giving customers for the volumes of accurate information that I receive in return.

In doing so, you might find out that a certain deal you’ve been forecasting for months is never going to happen. Would you rather know that now, or continue expending time, energy, and resources on a deal that is never going to happen?

Note that you don’t have to be sly or clever, hoping to fool the customer into giving you information. In fact, I have found that one of the best ways to get accurate information is to turn the question around and simply ask:

Salesperson: “Ms. Prospect, if you were me, and you were the salesperson on this account, what would you put on the forecast to be most accurate?”

Net/net, getting rid of any ghosts on your sales forecast and wrapping up the deals that are indeed closable could make for a very Happy Halloween!