Knowing the Unknown Unknowns
'...as we know, there are known knowns; there are things that we know that we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.'
--Donald Rumsfeld
A lot of the world had a bit of a laugh at the then-US Secretary of State when he made his assertion about completely unforeseeable events. But whatever you think of the Bush administration's foreign policy, I'd argue that Rumsfeld had a point. No matter how carefully we plan, a single random and essentially unpredictable event can derail it all. But however frustrating these events are in real life, they are an unparalleled source of plot twists and complications when skillfully deployed in fiction.
As statistician Nassim Taleb argues in his books, humans tend to underestimate the enormous influence of random events on the world around us. Part of this stems from our innate tendency to look for logical patterns even where none exist. Another part comes from our inability to catalog all possible random and improbable events; as a result, we underestimate the likelyhood of such an event happening to us.
Fiction, of course, demands that we be somewhat less random than real life. Because fiction follows a distinct narrative arc, we expect a certain unrealistic level of continuity, otherwise we the audience feel cheated. So introducing a 'random' event in your fictional world takes a bit more finesse than just spinning a 'choose your own disaster' wheel. Here are my suggestions for using random events in your story for plot twists and profit:
The event should be predictable (or highly plausible) to the reader, even if the characters know nothing about it. This means that if you're going to use an unlikely or complex random event, the reader should know enough to predict that this might happen and effect the main characters, even if the main characters don't have the means to anticipate it. For example, if the kingdom next door is going to have a civil war that spills refugees and general chaos into your main character's hometown midway through the book, there should have been some hint of brewing civil unrest over in the neighbouring state or the reader will see the plot development as contrived. However, some random events, such as a huge snowstorm in early winter, are plausible enough to need little foreshadowing.
With enough subtle foreshadowing, an 'unknown unknown' event can be a great way to worldbuild and to introduce a whole set of complications to your plot.
--Donald Rumsfeld
A lot of the world had a bit of a laugh at the then-US Secretary of State when he made his assertion about completely unforeseeable events. But whatever you think of the Bush administration's foreign policy, I'd argue that Rumsfeld had a point. No matter how carefully we plan, a single random and essentially unpredictable event can derail it all. But however frustrating these events are in real life, they are an unparalleled source of plot twists and complications when skillfully deployed in fiction.
As statistician Nassim Taleb argues in his books, humans tend to underestimate the enormous influence of random events on the world around us. Part of this stems from our innate tendency to look for logical patterns even where none exist. Another part comes from our inability to catalog all possible random and improbable events; as a result, we underestimate the likelyhood of such an event happening to us.
Fiction, of course, demands that we be somewhat less random than real life. Because fiction follows a distinct narrative arc, we expect a certain unrealistic level of continuity, otherwise we the audience feel cheated. So introducing a 'random' event in your fictional world takes a bit more finesse than just spinning a 'choose your own disaster' wheel. Here are my suggestions for using random events in your story for plot twists and profit:
The event should be predictable (or highly plausible) to the reader, even if the characters know nothing about it. This means that if you're going to use an unlikely or complex random event, the reader should know enough to predict that this might happen and effect the main characters, even if the main characters don't have the means to anticipate it. For example, if the kingdom next door is going to have a civil war that spills refugees and general chaos into your main character's hometown midway through the book, there should have been some hint of brewing civil unrest over in the neighbouring state or the reader will see the plot development as contrived. However, some random events, such as a huge snowstorm in early winter, are plausible enough to need little foreshadowing.
With enough subtle foreshadowing, an 'unknown unknown' event can be a great way to worldbuild and to introduce a whole set of complications to your plot.
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