Game of Thrones Recap: The Mountain Versus Viper
Another bloody episode. Martin and HBO are treating us to a slaughter fest. For every new character introduced, another is killed. The Seven Kingdoms just can’t seem to get its act together and Daenerys is finding the path back to Westeros much longer than expected. Yet the balance of power hasn’t changed much this season. The Lannister-Baratheon faction is still the strongest with its prospects steadily improving. Stannis Baratheon has a glimmer of hope but is still a long shot. The North is in chaos and the threat beyond the wall still grows.
Tywin Lannister time and again proves to be the wisest and most effective prince. He rules most of the kingdom and has assembled the strongest alliance. Joffrey was sadistic and unpredictable. Tommen seems much more cooperative. Still, he must work to ensure his alliance with the Tyrells remains intact. What does he do? Puts Mace Tyrell on the small council, keeps open hope for Marjaery-Tommen match, and placates Prince Oberyn.
SPOILER ALERT!!!
Prince Oberyn’s death at the hands of Ser Gregor is a big victory for Tywin. If Oberyn’s brother wants to start a war, it will be on a flimsy pretext (Oberyn volunteered to fight on Tyrion’s behalf) and against a stronger enemy. the Martells have thus far been cautious. I expect the pattern to continue. There won’t be a war between Tywin and Doran Martell. At the same time, I think Martell is a good fit as an ally for Daenerys if she ever gets to Westeros.
At the same time the Lannister House is starting to crumble from within. Jaime Lannister’s attempt to save Tyrion’s life damages his position, especially when Tyrion demanded trial by combat. His oath to help Sansa, although still unknown, as brought him to act against the interest of his own family. There is no strong heir for the Lannister name.
One of my favorite characters Tyrion looks like his life is over. There will be an execution. This eliminates the last decent human being in the family. Jaime’s dedication to his oath and his attempt to save Tyrion’s life shows he might want something more than just a free pass to sleep with Cersei at will. He hates his father and his dedication to Cersei is waning.
Would he help Tyrion escape? My guess is probably no.
In Braavos, Ser Davos made an excellent point. Tywin Lannister is the undisputed power behind the Lannister-Baratheon dynasty, and he is 67 years old. Once he dies, power moves to King Tommen Baratheon and Cersei Lannister. Neither have his talent. This contingency depends on Tywin dying sometime soon however. It appears the dynasty is not stable and civil war could continue.
Stannis Baratheon just doesn’t have what it takes to defeat Tywin Lannister. He lacks creativity and relies heavily on the Red Priestess for guidance. But his associate Ser Davos has shown some cunning. Still, he isn’t a statesmen and isn’t educated. It would be interesting to see him rise to the occasion. The Red Priestess seems content to hold her position of influence without pressing Stannis to act.
There could be a new northern faction in the making. the losers of the War of the Five Kings are finding their way to the Eyrie. For the first time since King Robert’s death, Sansa Stark is safe. Petyr Baelish sees Catelyn in her, and definitely has a thing for the young beauty. Sansa also showed some cunning and tact for the first time, lying to protect Petyr. It also looked like Lysa’s murder was the first act Petyr didn’t plan.
Sansa and Arya Stark are about to be reunited. Arya’s reaction to learning of her aunt’s death is priceless. Everywhere the Hound goes, his potential benefactors are dead: Catelyn Stark, now Lysa. Arya is learning about the real world but is not particularly clever. There is definitely potential but she isn’t ready to play the game of thrones yet (see what I did there). Also Arya wants revenge and might be aware Petyr betrayed her father.
More potential allies are making their way to the Eyrie. Lady Brienne and Podrick are on their way. Blackfish Tully is also still alive and probably on his way there. If he finds his way, you have the makings of a new force. It won’t have manpower but it has a safe position in the mountains and a strong desire to take down the Lannisters.
The heir to the Eyrie is young Robert (called Robin) Arryn. He is weak (physically and mentally) and spoiled. Petyr seems to think he is an ideal puppet. Bran and Rickon are alive but far from safe. The North is nearly under the full control of the Boltons, so building a power base there is unlikely. Yet, in the long term, a Stark-Arryn-Tully alliance makes sense. It would be up against Roose Bolton, Walder Frey, and Balon Greyjoy.
From a balance of power perspective, it makes sense for this potential new force to ally itself with Stannis Baratheon, recognizing his claim to the throne. The new force lacks the power to make a claim on its own and needs allies.
The Mother of Dragons has hit a wall. Daenerys dismissed Jorah Mormont from her side. She learned of his spying and his pardon from King Robert. Tywin sent it to fracture her council and it worked. She loses a very wise, capable knight. Barristan Selmy is wise but he is not as creative as Jorah. Dhario is no knight, just a great warrior. Daenerys is weaker after the loss of Jorah, distracted by rebellions to her rear in Yunkai and Astapor. She is out of the game for the Iron Throne for now.
It seems to me the fate of the Seven Kingdoms will be decided in the North, one way or the other.
J
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