Macroadvisers: Mind the Curve! Market Expectations and the Zero Bound

Macro Advisers tells us not to say "the yield curve is predicting a robust recovery":

Macroadvisers: Mind the Curve! Market Expectations and the Zero Bound: Mind the Curve! Market Expectations and the Zero Bound

Conventional wisdom would tell you that the yield curve is pricing in a robust recovery. Our term structure model says otherwise: Current yields are consistent with expectations of a very sluggish economy.

Indeed.

We are now looking--if nothing else is done--at a...