Ballots For Bashar

Syrians in government-controlled areas vote today in a presidential “election” that pits incumbent Bashar al-Assad against two pre-approved, token opposition candidates with no chances of winning. Steven Heydemann explains why the regime bothered to hold the sham election at all:

[A]s tempting as it might be, it would be a mistake to dismiss the election as a farce — it has already caused real harm. It has accelerated the resignation of U.N. special envoy for Syria Lakhdar Brahimi, who said on March 14 that “holding elections [in Syria] would doom prospects for future talks by negating the need for an interim government.” Without a swift and compelling response from the United States and other lead FOS governments, the election will continue to muddle the international case against Assad. Election results will be hauled out at every opportunity to justify regime intransigence, continue to stymie the efforts of the U.N. Security Council to act on issues such as the regime’s obstruction of humanitarian assistance, and undermine possibilities for a negotiated settlement based on the internationally-agreed Geneva Protocol of June 2012.

David Kenner interviewed Assad’s two opponents and was surprised to find that they actually had some non-sycophantic opinions toward the regime:

“The age of the sole ruler has come to an end,” [businessman Hassan Abdullah] Nouri told FP. Assad’s rule has resulted in the emergence of a “100 family economy” that controls the preponderance of the country’s wealth, he said, while the middle class has collapsed.

Nouri framed his efforts to combat corruption and improve the country’s economy as a strategy for strengthening Syria’s struggle against both the United States and Israel. “The U.S. administration knows full well that there is no way to breach Syria militarily,” he said. “The United States can only breach Syria socially, because of its scientific supremacy” — which, he noted, Damascus can circumvent through internal reform and deeper cooperation with Russia.

When it comes to political reform and the regime’s ongoing crackdown on its domestic enemies, however, Nouri had nothing but praise for Assad. He heralded the country’s new “modern and balanced” constitution as opening the door for political pluralism in the country, and said that the coming election would be “honest and democratic, in the Syrian way.”

Nicholas Blandford expects Assad’s election victory to forestall an end to the conflict for years to come:

Assad will feel vindicated by his reelection and will likely reject any proposed meaningful negotiations with the opposition. On the battlefield, Assad’s forces will continue to systematically seize territory from the fragmented, poorly equipped armed opposition. The regime has regained control over the critical corridor linking Damascus to the Mediterranean coast via Homs and has either pushed rebel forces away from the suburbs of Damascus or surrounded and bombed them in a brutal but effective strategy of “surrender or starve.” The military is attempting to reverse recent rebel gains in the Golan Heights and Deraa province in the south and continues to chip away at rebel quarters of Aleppo.

Nevertheless, Assad’s military forces – the army, Hezbollah fighters, Iraqi Shiite paramilitaries and the National Defense Force militia – are badly overextended. When they concentrate their forces on a specific target, such as the recent offensive in the Qalamoun region north of Damascus, they can usually triumph, but it is by no means certain that the regime can hold the ground after it redeploys to a new objective. As for regaining the country as a whole, that is not a realistic scenario for now. Neither side is strong enough to decisively defeat the other.

(Photo: A Syrian student shows her ink-stained thumb after casting her vote in the country’s presidential elections at a polling station in the Baath University of Homs, north of Damascus, on June 3, 2014. By Joseph Eid/AFP/Getty Images)