Surge in Inaugural Exchange Enrollment Sets the Stage for 2015

by Sneha Chiliveru

Despite its much publicized rocky start, enrollment in health plans through the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) insurance exchanges surpassed 8 million enrollees in its inaugural open enrollment period, beating initial budget forecasters’ projections by more than one million subscribers.

After accounting for potential nonpayment of premiums, roughly half of the states met or exceeded enrollment expectations after the surge in enrollment during March and early April. Florida, California, Texas, and Idaho led the pack with the highest percentage of enrollments compared to expectations.

Participation in the exchanges increased from 61 percent of projected enrollment, as of March 1, 2014, to 115 percent by April 19, 2014. Marketplaces have enrolled 24 percent of projected 2016 enrollment and 13 percent of their target populations. In addition, both State Based Exchanges (SBMs) and Federally Facilitated Marketplaces (FFMs) have also exceeded Marketplace projections by 121 percent and 113 percent, respectively. However, within these categories, projections vary widely among states, with some states already exceeding projected 2014 enrollment figures, and others enrolling less than 25 percent of their projections.

As the data indicate, enrollment numbers for the exchanges have significantly passed projected targets. If these initial trends are harbingers of the exchanges growth potential, states can expect to see substantial enrollment increases in the coming years.

These data trends are anticipated to be even more favorable once final numbers are released with updated paid member rates.  This is an exciting time for the healthcare industry as it looks forward to the 2015 enrollment kickoff.  If premium rates hold or increase minimally, as analysts forecast, we can expect even greater gains in enrollment as enthusiastic early adopters spread the word about the value provided them by the new exchanges.

 

Sneha Chiliveru is an Associate at Optimity Advisors.